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MIAMI DOLPHINS -6.5 (-105)

1.1 Units / BetMGM

The Dolphins have been impressive. The Broncos have not. Traditionally, I'm careful in these spots because the distance between teams in the NFL is often less than it appears. However, I love how quickly Tua has been getting the ball out. Not only does this give Hill and Waddle the chance to make plays after the catch, it's a strategy that can help to keep him healthy. The Dolphins defense has been better than advertised, and it appears Vic Fangio is working his magic. On the other side, the Broncos just had over 30 points put on them by a below-average offense in the Commanders. The offense can't seem to get much going either. With this game in Miami this line should be -8.5 and I'll gladly take the line under a TD.


0.54 Units / BetMGM

Week 3 presents a near-must-win game for the Vikings and the Chargers. Both teams are 0-2 heading into this weekend's contest. There are many factors I could share on why I'm siding with the Vikings, but one sticks out. The Vikings have a -6 turnover differential through two games and were in both of them. Their offense has produced against two good defenses and their defense has been okay. On the other hand, the Chargers have a turnover differential of +2 through two games and have still found a way to lose. The loss to the Dolphins is understandable, but that loss to the Titans was a bad look. These teams are close, but in Minnesota, I'll side with the Vikings to get their first win.


1.1 Units / DraftKings

This game is going to be complete destruction. If the Giants couldn't compete with the Cowboys, there's no way the Josh Dobbs-led Cardinals will. The Cowboys' defense will bury the Cards (I'm not sure how they score more than 6 or 9 points) and their offense should have a field day against a mediocre defense that is now without Budda Baker. There's one danger I see in playing such a wide line--the Cowboys are up by 21 going into the 4th quarter, they sit their starters, and the Cardinals get a miraculous backdoor cover. But for now, I'm riding this Cowboys train.

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