top of page


It's always tough when your real job gets busy and there's no time to put out videos detailing the rationale behind your future bets, but that's where I find myself this week. Since the work to find the best futures bets to add to the portfolio is already done, I figured it was at least worth the time to share them with a brief overview of why I'm taking them. So damn it, let's do it.


Denver Broncos - Over/Under 4.5 Wins

Well, this hasn't turned out well. The smiles in that picture have all faded, along with any illusions about Nathaniel Hackett's coaching prowess and Mr. Unlimited's remaining QB acumen and leadership.

The Broncos are dead last in PPG with 14.3. They struggle to move the ball at all, and while I assumed it would get better at some point, there is no evidence to suggest that's true. If you take away the storied Broncos brand, this is a team that is only better than the Texans.

Last week Denver u5.5 wins at +125. They promptly went out and lost by 13 to the Carolina Panthers and Sam Darnold. Because of this, that o/u5.5 offering has dropped to 4.5.

Remaining Schedule and Analysis

The rest of the schedule is no cake walk--in other words, they're not playing the Texans 6 times. Here's what they have left.

  • @Baltimore

  • Kansas City

  • Arizona

  • @LA Rams

  • @Kansas City

  • LA Chargers

I'm going to pencil in losses against BAL, KC twice, and LAC. Yes, Baltimore and the Chargers are very imperfect teams, but they're in a different class than the Broncos. This leaves me needing them to go 1-1 against the Rams and Arizona. If someone gave you odds on the Broncos to go 2-0 vs any two teams in the NFL, what would you make those?

The Pick

Denver Broncos u4.5 Wins (+155) 1 Unit


Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 8.5 Wins

The caption for this picture: "Why the hell did I come back? Get out while you can."

I've gotta admit something. I've completely wimped out on the way I've played the Bucs to this point, and that stops now. Three or four weeks ago on a podcast I said I didn't believe in them and didn't think they were going to get it all together and become any kind of contender in the NFC. I let the names scare me off. It's still Brady, Evans, Godwin, and a defense that should be (and at times has been) pretty good. So I avoided betting against them. That stops here.

The Bucs wins this year are against Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta, the Rams, and the Seahawks. Dallas good, the rest? Meh. The losses are where it gets bad--Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Cleveland.

We could dive into numbers, but the analysis here is simple--the Bucs are overvalued because they used to be good.

Remaining Schedule and Analysis

  • New Orleans

  • @San Fran

  • Cincinnati

  • @Arizona

  • Carolina

  • @Atlanta

The one thing the Bucs have going for them is that their schedule isn't great outside the 49ers and Bengals. They currently have 5 wins, so they need 4 more to go over 8.5. I'll put SF and CIN in the loss column. That means they need to sweep the other four games. Yeah, the opponents aren't great, but what would you put the odds at for TB to go 4-0 vs any four teams in the NFL, let alone the three teams in their division?

The Pick

Tampa Bay u8.5 Wins (+145)


New York Jets

Time to get a little crazy with a +4000 bet. That equals a 2.44% implied odds, and I think this bet has a significantly better chance than 2.44% to hit.

When I look at futures for playoff bets (conference champions and NFL champion) I want teams that have multiple paths to victory. In other words, if Plan A isn't working out, there's a plan B and even C to still try and get the job done.

To get to the point, in the playoffs I like teams that can win a game with their offense OR their defense. This is why I like Philly, Dallas, San Fran, and Buffalo. If healthy, those teams all fit the bill. But here's the thing, the Jets fit that bill as well. The Jets defense is right up there with any of these other teams. They're 4th in the league in points allowed at 17.8. They have a good defensive line and secondary.

The problem with the Jets was Zach Wilson. He's a disaster. The good thing for Jets fans is that he was such a big disaster that they were forced to bench him for Mike White. I'm not saying Mike White is the second coming of Tom Brady, I'm just saying he's competent, and that's all the Jets need. They have a good run game and good weapons at receiver. This gives them at least a CHANCE of winning a game with their offense if they need to.

I think the Jets are a contender in the AFC. For now I'd put them behind KC and Buffalo, but that's it. I don't think they're decidedly better than Miami, Cincinnati, Baltimore, or Tennessee, but I don't think they're decidedly worse either.

So do I think they'll win the AFC? Nope. Do I like their chances a lot more than 2.44%? Hell yes.

The Pick

NY Jets AFC Champions (+4000) 1/2 Unit

20 views0 comments


bottom of page