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We have a fantastic holiday weekend of NFL football to look forward to. Here's what I like for the three-game Thanksgiving Day slate.

DETROIT LIONS -7.5 (-109) 1.1 Units


Do I wish I got this at -7, of course, but this is a mismatch and I don't expect it to be particularly close. The Packers are coming off of a win against the Chargers and the Lions narrowly escaped against the Bears. That should have the Lions aware that they're not invincible and ready to play the Packers this week.

The Pack will struggle to slow the Detroit run game, and once they get that going the play action will be there for Goff, St. Brown, and LaPorta. It's likely Aaron Jones will miss this game (I wouldn't change this bet even if he played) and putting the game in the hands of Jordan Love against a good defense isn't what you want as a Packers fan.


Option 1: Being Responsible
6 Pt Tease: DET -1.5 & SF -0.5 (-120) 1.2U

I already talked about Detroit, so let's get them down to -1.5 and then add the Niners to win as well. Geno Smith may not go for the Seahawks, even if he does he hasn't been spectacular this year. On top of that Kenneth Walker isn't likely to go. I do think this game could be relatively close since it's in Seattle. But the Niners are just a better team. I like them to keep it rolling and win this one by 7.

Option 2: Have a Little Fun
Parlay: Lions -5.5, Cowboys -6.5, Niners ML (+212) 0.25U

I'm not going to sit here and tell you three-leg parlay is a smart bet, but it is a fun bet that gets you some action across all the games--and I really do like all three of these legs. The biggest problem here isn't whether each of these outcomes is likely (they are) but whether all the favorites can get it done (they usually don't).



I don't make too many bets on player props, let alone TDs, but this line is off. Montgomery has hit this in 6 of 7 games he's played this year. The Lions will want to run the ball as always, and Montgomery is the guy they give it to when they need to punch it in the end zone.

Not only does his performance say this line is off, the market does too. If you shop around you'll find this bet somewhere between -140 and -190 and other books. -125 is a steal, whether it ends up hitting or not. I couldn't pass it up.

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