top of page

5 PICKS FOR NCAAB SATURDAY INCLUDING MICHIGAN ST v IOWA and ST. MARY'S v GONZAGA


Michigan State v Purdue, 12:00 Eastern


Iowa has been letting people down lately. They lost handily to Wisconsin and Northwestern in their last two games. The Northwestern loss wasn't surprising, but Wisconsin isn't great this year and it wasn't a stretch to think Iowa could go into Madison and get the win. They lost by 12.


Michigan State is coming off an emotional 15-point beatdown of Indiana in the first game since the horrific shooting that occurred on their campus. Even as an IU fan, it was hard not to be happy for the Spartans that night.


Today's pick has everything to do with Iowa's home/road splits. They're astounding.

  • FG% 49.6 home / 40.3 away

  • 3P% 38.4 home / 26.2 away

  • FT% 74.9 home / 72.7 away

This has led to very different outcomes at home vs on the road as well. 4 of their 8 home conference games have been double-digit wins. They've only lost once. They are 12-2 ATS at home on the season.


Michigan State is a solid team, but they are 3-6 ATS away from home and it's hard to imagine they don't have a letdown. I like Iowa here, and the line has already moved from 3.5 to 5.5. I would play this to 6.5.


Pick: Iowa -5.5 (-110) DraftKings




Rhode Island v Fordham, 2:30 pm Eastern


Fordham has been good to me in recent weeks. They did stumble against VCU (okay, they flat fell down and broke their nose on the sidewalk), but they have been consistently good. Today they take on a Rhode Island team that is 4-11 in conference play and next-to-last in the standings.


The first time these two teams met Rhode Island got the better of Fordham 79-82. I love that for this game as it makes it a bit less likely Fordham looks past them. Fordham has been beating bad teams down at home, and even some okay teams. They beat St. Bonaventure by 15, UMass by 10, St. Louis by 10, and George Washington by 15 in their last 4.


To round out this shorter breakdown, Fordham is 10-5 ATS in the A10 while Rhode Island is 5-10.


Pick: Fordham -8 (-110) PointsBet



St. Mary's vs Gonzaga, 10:00 pm Eastern


It's time for more revenge! (Don't worry, I wouldn't bet a game just because it's revenge.) St. Mary's handled Gonzaga 78-70 at home, and now they go on the road to try and get a sweep against their rival.


Time to beat that same home/road split drum. Going through all of these splits would take forever, but here are a few. Gonzaga scores 4.4 ppg more than their season average at home while St. Mary's scores 3.8 less. Gonzaga shoots about 4% better and St. Mary's about 3% worse. Gonzaga turns the ball over almost 2 times less while St. Mary's turns it over 1.5 times more. The splits are a landslide in Gonzaga's favor.


The battle here is no secret. St. Mary's plays slow and limits scoring. Gonzaga plays fast and scores a ton. St. Mary's limited Gonzaga to 70 in the first game and I just don't think that happens in Spokane. Gonzaga won't put up 100, but I do think they get to at least 82, which would be more than enough to cover this spread.


Pick: Gonzaga -5 (-110) DraftKings




San Diego State vs New Mexico, 10:00 pm Eastern


I don't know what's happened to New Mexico. After being a solid team most of the year they've tanked lately. They're 2-6 in their last 8, including a home loss to lowly Wyoming.


Meanwhile, San Diego State has won 9 of 10, including four games on the road. Their only loss in this stretch was to Nevada, in Nevada, where no one wins.


For whatever it's worth, this is a revenge game too as New Mexico won 76-67 in San Diego. There are some games you just shouldn't overthink, and this is one of them.


Pick: San Diego State -2.5 (-110) DraftKings



Indiana vs Purdue, Clemson vs NC State, and Oklahoma vs Iowa State

Let's close things out with a bang. I know parlays aren't generally sharp plays, and I don't do many of them, but sometimes college basketball provides what I see as good opportunities for a parlay. If you disagree, please don't follow along!


Purdue is good at home and Indiana is not good on the road. This is an intense rivalry where Indiana knocked off Purdue when they were ranked #1. I expect a lot of intensity in West Lafayette today. I almost wrote this up as one of my straight plays, but Indiana is a good, deep team that can give Purdue some issues. I think it is a 7-10 point win for Purdue and the spread is 7.5. That's a good parlay leg to me.


NC State is playing a reeling Clemson team. At this point I think we can just say Clemson isn't very good. Clemson won the first game by 14 what feels like a lifetime ago. I actually have this as a 10-point win for NC State, but I know conference games can be tighter than I'd think based on the numbers. That's why I like the moneyline as leg two.


Rounding out the parlay is Iowa State at home against Oklahoma. Iowa State has stumbled a bit recently and they need to get right heading into the Big 12 tournament. Oklahoma is just the medicine they need. Oklahoma is fine, but they aren't good. And when they run into Iowa State's defense they won't have an answer. Iowa State won the first game by 3 in Norman, but I don't think revenge is in the cards for the Sooners.


Pick: Purdue, NC State, and Iowa State ML Parlay (+147) FanDuel

67 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page