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BEST TEASER LEGS FOR NFL WEEK 1

At long last, the NFL season is upon us! Okay, okay, the first game doesn't even kick off for 9 more days, but that shouldn't stop us from getting a jump on some bets.


Here are five 6-point teaser legs that look good to me for week 1. Personally, I don't like to string together more than two teaser legs, and even then I tend to keep the volume low on teaser bets. But there can be some that are worth taking. At the end of the article, you can find the teaser bet I actually placed.


Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 ---> -0.5


The Chiefs and Lions kick off the season in Arrowhead on Thursday, September 7. We know what we're getting with the Chiefs, or at least we know what we're getting with Mahomes and Reid. The Chiefs can put up points on anyone, and while the Lions' defense should be improved, they still won't rank as one of the top defenses in the league.


The Lions offense looked very good down the stretch last year. Jared Goff has been impressive since coming to Detroit--especially when it comes to efficiency and taking care of the ball--both things you need to do to stay in the game with KC. The improving Chiefs defense will be a test for the Lions on the road, but with Chris Jones holding out (at least when I'm writing this), the Chiefs' best defensive playmaker is unlikely to be on the field. I think that makes a real difference.


I like this game to stay close. I have the Chiefs pulling it out by 4. While the Lions have a chance, Mahomes and Reid just don't lose out of the gate. They're 6-0 in game 1 since Mahomes entered the league in 2017, winning those games by an average of 13.33 points.



Washington Commanders -7 ---> -1


Is this a fade of the Arizona Cardinals? Absolutely. Is it ONLY a fade of the Cardinals? Nope.


I've been low on the Commanders coming into this season. (I have a bet on the under for their win total.) Though he could prove otherwise, I expect Sam Howell to be the worst QB in this division, and while the Commanders' defense isn't terrible, it does have some holes. However, I have come around a bit on this team. They do have an average to slightly above-average skill position group and their defense should be solid. Especially against a putrid offense like the Cardinals'.


It's unlikely Kyler Murray plays in this game, which leaves a banged-up Colt McCoy to try and get the job done behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Cardinals are basically tanking already--trading away pieces like DeAndre Hopkins and Isaiah Simmons. Aside from winning the turnover battle (by a lot) or another team not showing up it's hard to see where the Cardinals are going to get any wins this year--let alone against an okay team at their place to kick off the year.



Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 ---> +8.5


The 49ers' trip to Pittsburgh for a Week 1 contest should provide us with one of the highlights of the first week of the season. The 49ers are once again expected to be in the top tier of NFC teams with the Eagles and perhaps the Cowboys. The market currently prices the Steelers as the 4th-place team in their own division. While this could sound like a mismatch, it just highlights the vast difference between the NFC and AFC this year.


The 49ers are a tough test for anyone and they do tend to start the year strong. However, they have to travel across the country to face a Pittsburgh team that has gotten healthy, improved their offensive line, and expects to see Kenny Pickett take a step forward in year 2. This team has good offensive weapons and an above-average defense.


This is another game I expect to be close. I can see either team winning by a field goal, so more than a touchdown on either side looks attractive.



Green Bay Packers +2 ---> +8


The Cheese from up north are finally moving on from Aaron Rodgers at QB and it's really tough to predict what Jordan Love will be with any certainty. What we do know, is Justin Fields is both a human highlight reel and a turnover machine. He threw three screen passes in the preseason, at least one of which was badly off-target, and suddenly we think he's going to be a good QB? Yes, his skill position group is improved, but that doesn't help if you're throwing it to the other team.


The Packers should have a decent offense, and if Love can just take care of the ball I think his defense can do enough to keep this game close and even pull out a win. The Bears defense is improved, but not nearly enough. I doubt this Packers offense shreds them, but they probably won't stop them either.


These are two division rivals, who both have big question marks, but I don't see a massive advantage for either squad. We're getting more than a TD in that kind of game? Not bad.



Tennessee Titans +3.5 ---> +9.5


At the time of writing, it looks like this may be headed to Tennessee +3. It doesn't change my outlook on this teaser leg. The Titans play close games. When healthy, they seldom get blown out and often win games people think they should lose. I'm not high on this team, mostly because of the questions on the offensive line and in the defensive secondary. The secondary could be a concern against a Saints team that presumably will want to throw the ball with Derek Carr, but I think the defensive front will give him little time to do it.


We have a lot to learn about what the Saints will be this year, so there's certainly some volatility here, but we know what the Titans are. When they are healthy, they're a team that has a great chance to be in every game they play.



Teaser I'm Betting

As I said at the beginning, I try to keep my volume on teaser bets low. But there are two legs of the five above I especially like, so I am betting them.


WAS -0.5 & TEN +9.5 (-125) HardRock Bet


Obviously, I don't like the line here, which is why I've only put a free bet on this so far. I am looking for a book where I can get -110 or even -115, even if I have to give up half a point on either team. If I find that I'll bet enough to win 1 unit.

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