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LIVE BETTING STRATEGY AND TARGETS FOR FRIDAY'S COLLEGE BASKETBALL SLATE

Writer's picture: Big TastyBig Tasty

Recently I wrote about a live betting strategy I use that focuses on getting teams I like pregame at better numbers. But different days require different strategies. Today I'll share a way I look to play games I expect to be close as there are a lot of them on the slate.


#1: Identify games you believe will stay close.

This doesn't mean there won't be runs where one team gets out to a lead (in fact, that needs to happen for this strategy to work well), but you want situations where both teams are capable of those runs so that the game stays close in the end.


#2: Make a note of the pregame line.

You can find websites that give you this info. I'm old-school, so I like pen and paper. I write down all the games and the pregame lines with a few notes. Either way, you need to have this handy.


#3: Wait for the second half.

In my other live-betting strategy I'm mostly looking for first-half bets. This one is the opposite. Waiting until the second half accomplishes two things.

  1. You get a sense of how both teams are playing on that day. This helps you avoid a blowout because one team just doesn't show up.

  2. Lines are more sensitive in the second half. If Team A is +2.5 pregame and goes down 6 in the first half, that line might move to +3.5 or +4.5 with some juice. In the second half that same deficit will likely move the line to +5.5. You want these fluctuations.

#4: Try to create at least a 6-point middle.

If you've made it to this point, you want to wait for the line to move a minimum of 3 points from the pregame line. Once it does, bet the side that gives you a better line than the pregame line. Personally, I do two more things with this, but to each their own.

  • I play an alternate line with the lowest amount of plus money I can get. So if +6.5 is -120, I'll play +5.5 at +100. If you only win one of the two bets in this scenario you break even. If you lay juice on both sides and win one you're losing whatever the juice was.

  • I try to get points on either side. Technically getting Team A at +7.5 and Team B at -1.5 fits what I'm saying here, but I really prefer +3.5 or more on each side. Since I'm playing games I think will be close, this is a bet on the game being close.


If you have any questions about this feel free to DM @bigtastysports on Twitter or email me at bigtasty@bigtastysports.com.



TODAY'S TARGETS THAT FIT THE SYSTEM




Ohio State vs Michigan State -3.5 / 2:30 Eastern

UAB vs UNT -1 / 3:00 Eastern

Penn State vs Northwestern even / 6:00 Eastern

Akron vs Kent State -2.5 / 7:30 Eastern

Maryland vs Indiana even / 9:00 Eastern

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