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MONTANA STATE v EASTERN WASHINGTON ANALYSIS AND PICK


One of the best games on today's slate comes from the Big Sky conference, where the top seed Eastern Washington hosts the team right behind them in the standings, the Montana State Bobcats. EW comes in at 16-1 in conference play while Montana State is 14-3. EW hadn't lost a game in the Big Sky until their most recent contest against Idaho State, at home. Idaho State is not a very good team and losing to that team on their home court should remind EW they're not invincible. That should help ensure they show up to play tonight.


Not only has EW been good at home (11-1), but they've generally covered the spread as well, going 8-2 ATS. Montana State has been a good road team though, with a 9-4-1 ATS record away from home.


In their home games, EW has won by 12, 17, 4, 13, 7, 21, 3, and 12. MS is the toughest test in the conference, so it's not a given they can maintain this kind of margin, but they haven't failed to win by 3 at home so far (other than the game they just lost of course!). The stats back up that EW is better at home too. Here are some of their home stats in comparison to the season overall.

  • +6.9 in margin of victory

  • +5.1 in points scored

  • +1.9 in points allowed

  • +3.4 in 3P%

  • +4.9 in effective FG%

Montana State is 6-2 on the road in conference, but their stats aren't as favorable away from home.

  • -4.6 in margin of victory

  • -2.7 in points scored

  • -1.8 in points allowed

  • -1.9 in 3P% (29.3%, not good)

  • -1.3 in effective FG%

  • 1.7 additional turnovers

These numbers aren't terrible. Most teams are worse away from home (except the Shockers!). However, the point still stands that this will be an uphill climb for the Bobcats. In the first game between these teams EW pulled out the win 70-67 in Montana. This should be a good game, but in the end I think EW comes out focused after their first home loss and rebounds to cover a small spread.


Pick: Eastern Washtington -2.5 (-110) DraftKings


One other note. Because this is a short spread in what should be a close game, you could watch for a time when Montana State gets a lead and try to bet this live on the moneyline or even get a couple of points on Eastern Washington. The only danger there is that EW comes out playing really well and you never get that chance. I bet 1 unit pregame and I'll watch for the chance to add one more live if it presents itself.

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