top of page

NFL DIVISIONAL SCENARIOS AND BEST BETS WITH TWO WEEKS LEFT

Five of the eight divisions in the NFL are still technically up for grabs. The question is, what's most likely to happen, and is there any value to be found betting at the current lines? Those are the questions this article will answer! Check it out and leave a comment with your predictions for this year's playoffs.


AFC EAST

Miami Dolphins (-260)
Buffalo Bills (+290)


How the Dolphins win...
  • Win one more game. A win vs the red-hot Ravens (+135) or vs the Bills at home in the final week of the season gives the division to Miami OR...

  • Win both games. Kind of a no-brainer, but we're covering all the angles here.


How the Bills win...
  • Miami loses to Baltimore this week (-160) AND...

  • Beat New England this week (-650) and then beat Miami on the road in week 18.


What are the chances...

These percentages don't add up to 100 because they account for vig.

  • 26.39% (+265) that the Bills win both games and Miami loses to the Ravens. (Assumes -110 on each side in the week 18 matchup vs the Dolphins.)

  • 72.42% (-262) that the Dolphins beat the Ravens and/or the Bills to capture the division crown.


Where there's an edge...
  • At +290 on FanDuel, there is a 1.76% edge on the Bills division odds over the necessary conditions for them to win it (2 wins and a Miami loss to the Ravens).


The best bet is...
  • Bet 1U on the Bills to win the division (+290).

  • Bet 0.427U on the Dolphins to beat the Ravens (+135).

  • If the Dolphins win, you break even.

  • If the Dolphins win and the Bills win, you have a +124 ticket on the Bills in week 18. This is a 7.74% edge over my projected line of -110. (This does assume they beat the Patriots, which of course, is not a lock.)



AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (-130)
Indianapolis Colts (+275)
Houston Texans (+325)


How the Jaguars win...
  • Win both remaining games vs the Panthers at home and on the road vs the Titans. (48.54% chance, or +106, assuming lines of -270 and -200).

  • Win one of those two games and have neither the Colts or Texans win both remaining games. (41% chance, or +144)


How the Colts win...
  • Win both remaining games vs the Raiders and the Texans at home AND have the Jags lose at least one of two.

  • Win only one game (has to be vs. the Texans in week 18) AND have the Jags lose both.


How the Texans win...
  • Win both remaining games--at home vs the Titans and on the road at the Colts AND have the Jags lose at least one of two.

  • Win only one game (has to be vs. the Colts in week 18) AND have the Jags lose both.


What are the chances...

These percentages don't add up to 100 because they account for vig.

  • 69.63% (-229) that the Jags have the conditions met to win the division.

  • 15.91% (+528) that the Colts win the division.

  • 15.04% (+565) that the Texans win the division.


Where there's an edge...
  • At -130 on BetOnline, there is a significant edge betting the Jags compared to the likelihood they win the division given the current lines. (13.11%) While this is computed with the current lines, it doesn't take Trevor Lawrence's injury status or the poor defensive play into account. (Though the assumption is that the line Vegas has up accounts for this.)

  • There is NOT an edge on the divisional odds for the Colts or Texans at the current lines.


The best bet is...
  • It's scary, but it's the Jags to win the division at -130. I have quite a few futures on the Jags already, so I won't add more, but this is what the percentages say.

  • An alternative option is to pass right now and see where things stand going into week 18. One possibility will be to compare a parlay of a Jags loss with a win for the Texans and Colts and compare this with the divisional odds available.



AFC WEST

Kansas City Chiefs (-10000)
Las Vegas Raiders (+2500)
Denver Broncos (+2800)


How the Chiefs win...
  • Win one of their last two games against the Bengals or at the Chargers. (95.45% chance based on -340 and -400 lines) OR

  • Both the Raiders and Chargers lose at least one game. They play each other in week 18, so it's impossible for them both to win out. (53.16% likelihood)


How the Raiders win...
  • Win both remaining games at the Colts and home vs the Broncos AND have the Chiefs lose out.


How the Broncos win...
  • Win both remaining games--at home vs the Chargers and on the road at the Raiders AND have the Jags lose at least one of two.


What are the chances...

These percentages don't add up to 100 because they account for vig.

  • 97.87% (-4545) that the Chiefs have the conditions met to win the division.

  • 1.03% (+9609) that the Raiders win the division.

  • 1.76% (+5582) that the Broncos win the division.


Where there's an edge...
  • There are no edges on the divisional odds at the current prices.


The best bet is...
  • There aren't any great bets to make at the current odds.

  • If I had to bet something, I would bet on the Bengals to beat the Chiefs at +320 and parlay those winnings into another line next week if they win and the Raiders or Broncos win. (I'm not planning to bet this.)



NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-400)
New Orleans Saints (+700)
Atlanta Falcons (+1200)


How the Buccaneers win...
  • Win at least one of their remaining games at home against New Orleans or at Carolina. (85% chance) OR...

  • New Orleans and Atlanta both lose at least one of their remaining games.


How the Saints win...
  • Win both remaining games at Tampa Bay and home against Atlanta AND have the Bucs lose out. (6.51%)


How the Falcons win...
  • Win both remaining games at Chicago and New Orleans AND have the Bucs lose out. (6.62%)


What are the chances...

These percentages don't add up to 100 because they account for vig.

  • 85.87% (-606) that the Bucs have the conditions met to win the division.

  • 6.51% (+1436) that the Saints win the division.

  • 6.62% (+1411) that the Falcons win the division.


Where there's an edge...
  • At -400 on BetOnline, there is a 5.87% edge on the Bucs to win the division.

  • There is not an edge on the Saints or Falcons winning the division at the current odds.


The best bet is...
  • By the numbers, the best bet is Tampa Bay to win the division at -400, however, I don't generally bet numbers bigger than -200. To each their own.

  • In my opinion, the best thing to do is to pass this week and see if any opportunities open up in the final week of the season.



NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (-450)
Dallas Cowboys (+380)


How the Eagles win...
  • Win their remaining games home against the Cardinals and at the Giants. (71.59% chance) OR...

  • Win one of two and have Dallas lose to either the Lions or Commanders.

  • Lose both and Dallas loses both. (0.15% chance)


How the Cowboys win...
  • Win both remaining games and have Philadelphia lose at least one.

  • Win one game and have Philadelphia lose out.


What are the chances...

These percentages don't add up to 100 because they account for vig.

  • 79.3% (-383) that the Bucs have the conditions met to win the division.

  • 20.64% (+385) that the Cowboys win the division.


Where there's an edge...
  • There are no edges at the current lines.


The best bet is...
  • I don't recommend anything here, but if I had to pick something it would be to bet against the Eagles when they play Arizona this week. That line is +480, which is better than the line on the Cowboys to win the division.

20 views0 comments

Commentaires


bottom of page