Each week brings new opportunities to build a strong NFL futures portfolio that will deliver some profit in a few months. Hey, delayed gratification is good for you.
This action plan will come out weekly throughout the season and include important info for building that futures portfolio.
New positions I'm taking
Hedges on existing positions
Bet signals--what you should bet now and where you should wait
Important line movement
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Let's get on to the action!
BET SIGNALS (NOT BETS!)
Please Note: Bet signals are not things I'm saying you should bet (my bets are below). However, you may disagree with what I think about certain teams, and bet signals tell you whether you should bet these things now or wait, IF YOU LIKE THEM. Only bet these things if you think they're good bets! Otherwise, you can jump down to my bets section.
Over Signals (Not bets! Read description.)
This means if you want to bet an over on these teams I'd recommend doing it now as the line on the over is likely to get worse.
Kansas City Chiefs o10.5 (-130) DraftKings and BetOnline
Los Angeles Chargers o9.5 (+125) BetRivers
Dallas Cowboys o10.5 (-142) FanDuel
Detroit Lions o10.5 (-105) FanDuel
San Francisco 49ers o11.5 (-122) FanDuel
Under Signals (Not bets! Read description.)
This means if you want to bet an under on these teams I'd recommend doing it now as the line on the under is likely to get worse.
Houston Texans u5.5 (+107) BetRivers
Tennessee Titans u7.5 (-120) DraftKings
Las Vegas Raiders u6.5 (+125) BetRivers
Washington Commanders u6.5 (+110) DraftKings and BetRivers
Green Bay Packers u8.5 (+123) BetRivers
Carolina Panthers u6.5 (-115) DraftKings and BetRivers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers u7.5 (-106) BetRivers
Arizona Cardinals u3.5 (+118) BetRivers
BETS I'D MAKE IF I HADN'T ALREADY
These are bets I am not making now because I have already bet as much as I want to on this at a previous time. These plays are what I would bet today if I hadn't bet anything before.
Washington Commanders u6.5 (+110) DraftKings and BetRivers / 1 unit
Tampa Bay Buccaneers u7.5 (-106) BetRivers / To win 1 unit
Arizona Cardinals u3.5 (+118) BetRivers / 1 unit
NEW UNCORRELATED BETS I'VE ADDED
These are new bets that are not correlated to previous positions.
Los Angeles Chargers o9.5 (+125) BetRivers 1.2 units
I am still projecting the Chargers for 12 wins (in reality something more like 11.7). They have some deficiencies, but I still believe this is a top-tier team and getting plus money on them to get 10 wins is very strong. I also have an "over" signal on them which is why I'm betting it now instead of waiting.
NEW CORRELATED BETS I'VE ADDED
These are bets that are related to other bets I've already placed. The description says what I am doing and what I would do if I had not already taken other positions.
Dallas Cowboys o10.5 (-142) FanDuel
2.84 units
I have the Cowboys floor at 11 wins and love them to get to 12, but I already bet them at o9.5, so why take more? It's because of my Eagles exposure. I think this NFC East race is going to be tight. While I still favor the Eagles, it's by the slightest of margins. I could hedge by betting the Cowboys to win the division at +140, but part of what I love about futures is finding angles where I have a shot to win, even on my hedges.
If the Cowboys beat out the Eagles for the division, I really don't think they do it with 10 wins. The Eagles are still favored by the books to get to 12 wins, and while I'm not sure about that, I do think at least 11 is very likely. So if the Cowboys win the division, this and my other bet cover 80% of my losses. If the Eagles win the division and the Cowboys get to 11 wins I almost double up my return. That's the kind of hedge that interests me.
What would I bet if I didn't have any other exposure? I still favor the Cowboys to get to 11, so I would bet 2.13 units to win 1.5.
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