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NFL FUTURES ACTION PLAN - AFTER WEEK 1

Each week brings new opportunities to build a strong NFL futures portfolio that will deliver some profit in a few months. Hey, delayed gratification is good for you.


This action plan will come out weekly throughout the season and include important info for building that futures portfolio.

  • New positions I'm taking

  • Hedges on existing positions

  • Bet signals--what you should bet now and where you should wait

  • Important line movement

This content is subscriber-only, but there's lots of good news!

  • You can get a 7-day free trial right now!

  • It's only $10/month and you can cancel at any time.

  • You'll have access to my dashboard and best lines so you can make futures bets anytime you want.

  • You can check out the weekly NFL Futures Report on YouTube. It has lots of good info. Most of the time it will include at least one bet I'm making too.

Let's get on to the action!


 

BET SIGNALS (NOT BETS!)

Please Note: Bet signals are not things I'm saying you should bet (my bets are below). However, you may disagree with what I think about certain teams, and bet signals tell you whether you should bet these things now or wait, IF YOU LIKE THEM. Only bet these things if you think they're good bets! Otherwise, you can jump down to my bets section.


Over Signals (Not bets! Read description.)

This means if you want to bet an over on these teams I'd recommend doing it now as the line on the over is likely to get worse.

  • Kansas City Chiefs o10.5 (-130) DraftKings and BetOnline

  • Los Angeles Chargers o9.5 (+125) BetRivers

  • Dallas Cowboys o10.5 (-142) FanDuel

  • Detroit Lions o10.5 (-105) FanDuel

  • San Francisco 49ers o11.5 (-122) FanDuel

Under Signals (Not bets! Read description.)

This means if you want to bet an under on these teams I'd recommend doing it now as the line on the under is likely to get worse.

  • Houston Texans u5.5 (+107) BetRivers

  • Tennessee Titans u7.5 (-120) DraftKings

  • Las Vegas Raiders u6.5 (+125) BetRivers

  • Washington Commanders u6.5 (+110) DraftKings and BetRivers

  • Green Bay Packers u8.5 (+123) BetRivers

  • Carolina Panthers u6.5 (-115) DraftKings and BetRivers

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers u7.5 (-106) BetRivers

  • Arizona Cardinals u3.5 (+118) BetRivers

 

BETS I'D MAKE IF I HADN'T ALREADY

These are bets I am not making now because I have already bet as much as I want to on this at a previous time. These plays are what I would bet today if I hadn't bet anything before.

  • Washington Commanders u6.5 (+110) DraftKings and BetRivers / 1 unit

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers u7.5 (-106) BetRivers / To win 1 unit

  • Arizona Cardinals u3.5 (+118) BetRivers / 1 unit

 

NEW UNCORRELATED BETS I'VE ADDED

These are new bets that are not correlated to previous positions.

Los Angeles Chargers o9.5 (+125) BetRivers 1.2 units


I am still projecting the Chargers for 12 wins (in reality something more like 11.7). They have some deficiencies, but I still believe this is a top-tier team and getting plus money on them to get 10 wins is very strong. I also have an "over" signal on them which is why I'm betting it now instead of waiting.

 

NEW CORRELATED BETS I'VE ADDED

These are bets that are related to other bets I've already placed. The description says what I am doing and what I would do if I had not already taken other positions.



Dallas Cowboys o10.5 (-142) FanDuel

2.84 units


I have the Cowboys floor at 11 wins and love them to get to 12, but I already bet them at o9.5, so why take more? It's because of my Eagles exposure. I think this NFC East race is going to be tight. While I still favor the Eagles, it's by the slightest of margins. I could hedge by betting the Cowboys to win the division at +140, but part of what I love about futures is finding angles where I have a shot to win, even on my hedges.


If the Cowboys beat out the Eagles for the division, I really don't think they do it with 10 wins. The Eagles are still favored by the books to get to 12 wins, and while I'm not sure about that, I do think at least 11 is very likely. So if the Cowboys win the division, this and my other bet cover 80% of my losses. If the Eagles win the division and the Cowboys get to 11 wins I almost double up my return. That's the kind of hedge that interests me.


What would I bet if I didn't have any other exposure? I still favor the Cowboys to get to 11, so I would bet 2.13 units to win 1.5.


 

That's the Week 1 Action Plan! Sign up to get this every week along with the dashboard, lines, and numerous other tools and insights.

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