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After kicking around the observation that player prop totals seem very low for 2023, I decided to put my money where my mouth is and bet some overs. This goes against conventional wisdom, but when markets overcorrect the opportunity to profit is finite.

Here is a recent video on why I'm investing in some overs followed by the bets I've made (with two of them for free!).


Nick Chubb o1200.5 Rush Yards (-112) FanDuel To Win 1 Unit

Chubb has averaged over 5 yards per carry in his career. Now Kareem Hunt is gone, he's running behind a top 5 offensive line, and he's on a team that will absolutely want to run the ball. Short of a serious injury, 1201 yards is a gift.

Rhamondre Stevenson o925.5 Rush Yards (-112) FanDuel To Win 1 Unit

The Patriots are almost entirely devoid of offensive talent. Their only chance to hang with good teams this year is to run the ball and rely on their defense. Rhamondre proved himself to be a very good NFL back last year and his workload should increase here. I wouldn't be surprised to see him over this number with three or more games to go.

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