top of page

OVER OR UNDER? NFC NORTH WIN TOTALS

The NFC North should be a competitive division. There are serious unanswered questions on every team, which makes it a little tricky to predict the outcomes for these four teams, but let's give it a shot.


CHICAGO BEARS

o/u 7.5 (-115/+110)


The Bears made some nice moves on both side of the ball in the offseason. They picked up D.J. Moore to give Justin Fields a legitimate receiving threat to go with Mooney and Kmet. They brought in Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards to shore up the linebacking core. They should take positive steps forward from last year--though that's not saying too much.


With Chicago, it really comes down to Justin Fields. He is electric and can win games with his legs. The problem is, he can also lose them with his arm. Perhaps in year two, behind an improved offensive line, with improved weapons, he will prove he can make the leap to being a good NFL QB. But I'm not betting on it.


If I had to bet it: Under

Am I betting it: Nope. I have them projected for 6 wins, but there's way too much volatility here for me to feel confident.



DETROIT LIONS

o/u 9.5 (-120/+100)


Detroit finished last year strong, stringing together an 8-2 record across their last 10 games. It wasn't enough to vault them into the playoffs, but it raised expectations for 2023. This really is a solid team that's favored to win the division for a reason. The offensive line is the best in the division, Jared Goff has been very efficient since coming to Detroit, they have a top-tier receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a promising running back tandem in Montgomery and Gibbs.


The defense looks formidable on paper as well. Aiden Hutchinson has the makings of a dominant pass rusher and they brought in some help for the defensive backfield (though one piece, CJGJ is already hurt.)


My biggest issue with the Lions is culture. Dan Campbell seems to be turning it around, but a losing culture is a hard thing to overcome. The Lions come up short, even when they come close. The question is, will this be the year it all changes?


If I had to bet it: Over

Am I betting it: Nope. I'm projecting 10 wins, not enough of an edge at -120.



GREEN BAY PACKERS

o/u 7.5 (-115/+115)


Brett Favre. Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love? A significant part of the Packers season will come down to the answer to this question. It's very hard to know what to expect from Jordan Love. The reports out of camp are mixed. Outside of Love, the Packers are just kinda okay across the board. They have an above-average offensive line, good running backs, and young receivers with upside but who are largely unproven.


The defense should be fairly solid as well. Rashan Gary returns and Jaire Alexander is a very solid #1 CB. I think this defense may have overperformed a bit last year and they'll have to be good with an offense that I expect to be below league average. I know there's some hype out there on Love, but I'm not buying it.


If I had to bet it: Under

Am I betting it: Yep. My main concern here is that the schedule is easy, but I have them projected for 6 wins. I bet this at +105, so +115 is a nice price in my eyes.



MINNESOTA VIKINGS

o/u 8.5 (-110/+115)


Yeah, yeah, the Vikings got very lucky last year. I won't dispute it. But they won 13 games with a defensive scheme that wouldn't have cut it in the Mountain West. They did lose some key players in the offseason. Za'Darius Smith is gone to Cleveland, Eric Kendricks to the Chargers, and Adam Thielen to the Panthers. They didn't add much in the offseason outside of drafting Jordan Addison, who should be an apt replacement for Thielen.


For the Vikings it comes down to two things. First, can the offensive line give Kirk time to work? When he's clean he's an above average passer and he has the best receiver in the league to throw to--not to mention T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison. Second, can the defense be functional. The talent isn't great, but with Brian Flores creating the scheme it should be markedly improved over last year's disaster.


This isn't a great team, but their overperformance from last year is being baked into the line.


If I had to bet it: Over

Am I betting it: Not yet. I am seriously considering it though. 9-8 with upside for 10-7 makes sense to me.

7 views0 comments

Σχόλια


bottom of page