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Cincinnati -5.5 (-115) vs UCF

UCF comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak, with all of those losses coming by 7 or more. They're 1-3 away from home in conference with the lone win coming over a relatively weak East Carolina team.

Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS at home this year. They're only 2-2 in their last four games, but the losses were to Houston and Memphis, two of the top three teams in the AAC. They have struggled against the top teams in their conference, but when they play teams below them they tend to win convincingly. Five of their six conference wins have come by 9 or more.

I lined this game as Cincy -8.5, so I'll lay the 5.5.

Indiana (-110) vs Purdue

Is it wise to pick against the #1 team in the country, on a 9-game winning streak, with only one loss the entire season? We're going to find out. I talked about this game in some depth on the latest episode of the Big Tasty Podcast, so if you want a deeper breakdown you can check that out.

The short version is that Indiana is a very good team with more talent across the roster than Purdue. They're playing at Assembly Hall which should give them a strong home-court advantage. What they don't have is Zach Edey, Purdue's dominant 7'4" big man. They'll have to get creative with ways to try and slow him down, but if they can do that they should be able to pull out a close one. If you play this game 100 times, I think Indiana wins 57-60 of them. That's enough of an edge for me to pull the trigger on the Hoosiers.

NC State -15 (-110) vs Georgia Tech

This breakdown is pretty simple--these teams are on completely different levels. You don't need me to tell you that, you can just look at the spread, but I don't think it's enough. GT just lost to Louisville, by 10. You and the the four dudes you run with at the gym would only lose to Louisville by 9.

NC State certainly isn't in the top tier of teams in the country, but they are tied for 4th in the ACC with Miami. They're 10-2 in their last 12 games and 12-1 ATS at home this year. I can see this game being close at halftime. NC State just beat down FSU and it would be easy to come out with a lackluster effort against a bad team. But they're playing at home and I expect them to pull it together at halftime, then come out and dominate GT on the way to a 20 point victory.

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