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Category 1: Home Favorites

These are teams I like to win at home, however, one of the principles I believe is that the books are right more often than not. Because of that, the opportunity here is to look for spots where these teams go down in the first half so you can grab something closer to a moneyline bet.

Tips for Betting this Category

  • Bet at halftime or before.

  • Bet games where you get at least 3 points better than the pregame line.

  • If you're watching the game, wait for a run by the opposite team to end.

Teams to Target

Noon Eastern

  • Indiana -5.5

  • West Virginia -6

1:00 Eastern

  • UMass-Lowell -11.5

2:00 Eastern

  • Kansas State -3

  • TCU -5.5

  • Texas -10

3:00 Eastern

  • UNC-Ashville -1.5

  • Morehead State -9.5

4:00 Eastern

  • Xavier -13

4:30 Eastern

  • Providence -3.5

6:00 Eastern

  • Alabama -18.5

8:00 Eastern

  • Arizona -12.5

10:00 Eastern

  • Saint Mary's -10

  • Loyola Marymount -9.5

Category 2: Dogs with Value

These are teams I believe have two key characteristics. First, they are good enough to hang with the team they're playing. I'm not including dogs here if I believe they have a high chance of being blown out. Second, they are teams that have value on the pregame line. There are a few of these I bet pregame, but I don't bet many dogs--especially road dogs--in conference play. But these are all lines I believe are already favorable.

Tips for Betting this Category

  • Be careful if one of these teams goes down 5 or more points past the original line.

  • Like the first category, wait for a timeout to help break momentum if the favored team is on a run.

  • Don't bet a line worse than the opener.

Teams to Target

Noon Eastern

  • Notre Dame +12.5

  • South Carolina +7.5

2:30 Eastern

  • Fordham +8.5

5:00 Eastern

  • Pittsburgh +5.5

Category 3: Back and Forth Battles

These are games I expect to be close and competitive. This type of game provides an opportunity to play both sides, but you have to pay close attention. When one team gets on a run you bet the other side and vice versa. Because you may place more bets on a game like this I highly recommend betting half or even a fourth of what you'd normally put on a live bet.

Tips for Betting this Category

  • When one team goes on a run, bet the other side.

  • Get line movement of at least 3 points from the original line, 5 is preferable.

  • Middle your bet if possible, but make sure you're getting value in relation to the pregame line for both bets.

Teams to Target

1:00 Eastern

  • Tennessee (-1.5) v Kentucky (+1.5)

4:00 Eastern

  • Baylor (+5.5) v Kansas (-5.5)

6:00 Eastern

  • Texas A&M (+2) v Missouri (-2)

  • Duke (-1.5) v Syracuse (+1.5)

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