Which team's division winner futures have the most value right now? This year I put together a model to try and get at that. It takes into account strength of schedule, head to head, and a bunch of factors related to talent and team performance. I've been working on different components of this for a while, but this is the first year I put them into a model. This article gives you the value on each division winner future based on the model as well as a short commentary on why it makes sense to me, or not.
All lines are best available as of August 30. As lines move, obviously the math changes.
AFC East
Best Available Odds & Implied Probability to Win the Division
New York Jets +185 (35.09%)
Buffalo Bills +195 (33.90%)
Miami Dolphins +230 (30.30%)
New England Patriots +2800 (3.45%)
Model Probability to Win the Division - Implied Probability to Win the Division = Value
Jets 47.60% - 35.09% = 12.51%
Bills 21.20% - 33.90% = --12.7%
Dolphins 31.20% - 30.30% = 0.9%
Patriots 0.00% - 3.45% = --3.45%
Best Bet: New York Jets +185 / 12.51% Value
Am I buying it?
Yes. This is a team that was in the mix for the playoffs with some of the worst QB play we've ever seen. If Aaron Rodgers can be decent, this team is a contender not only to win the division, but to make a run at getting to the Super Bowl. They also have the easiest schedule in the division.
AFC North
Best Available Odds & Implied Probability
Baltimore Ravens +150 (40.00%)
Cincinnati Bengals +165 (37.74%)
Cleveland Browns +550 (15.38%)
Pittsburgh Steelers +800 (11.11%)
Model Probability - Implied Probability = Value
Ravens 25.00% - 40.00% = --15.00%
Bengals 49.10% - 37.74% = 11.36%
Browns 21.40% - 15.38% = 6.02%
Steelers 4.50% - 11.11% = -- 6.61%
Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +165 / 11.36% Value
Am I buying it?
Nope. Don't get me wrong, I can absolutely see the Bengals winning this division, and I understand why the model likes them. They do have the easiest schedule in the division by quite a bit and tons of talent on offense. For my money, the Browns at +550 look like greater value, but for this year when I disagree with the model I'm just staying away from it.
AFC South
Best Available Odds & Implied Probability
Houston Texans +105 (48.78%)
Jacksonville Jaguars +275 (26.67%)
Indianapolis Colts +340 (22.73%)
Tennessee Titans +1000 (9.09%)
Model Probability - Implied Probability = Value
Texans 64.10% - 48.78% =15.32%
Jaguars 14.10% - 26.67% = --12.57%
Colts 11.20% - 22.73% = --11.53%
Titans 10.60% - 9.09% = 1.51%
Best Bet: Houston Texans +105 / 15.32% Value
Am I buying it?
Sure am. This division could be competitive, but I think the Texans are decidedly better than the other three teams in the division. If CJ Stroud stays healthy and looks even close to what he was last year this offense will be an absolute menace. The Texans also added nice pieces on the defense. The Colts will be wildly inconsistent thanks to Anthony Richardson. The Jags have a very questionable defense. I actually think the second best value here is on the Titans. If Will Levis is good that team will surprise some people (which is why I already bet over their win total.)
AFC West
Best Available Odds & Implied Probability
Kansas City Chiefs -250 (71.43%)
LA Chargers +390 (20.41%)
Las Vegas Raiders +1200 (7.69%)
Denver Broncos +2200 (4.35%)
Model Probability - Implied Probability = Value
Chiefs 81.70% - 71.43% = 10.27%
Chargers 11.70% - 20.41% = --8.71%
Raiders 4.10% - 7.69% = --3.59%
Broncos 2.50% - 4.35% = --1.85%
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -250 / 10.27% Value
Am I buying it?
Hell yes. As long as the Chiefs have Mahomes, Reid, and Spags they're gonna be on top of this division. (Unless Mahomes is 50 and still playing.) On top of the dominance of the Chiefs, it doesn't appear there's another good team in this division. Not only will the Chiefs win the division, I think they find themselves as the only AFC West team in the playoffs.
NFC East
Best Available Odds & Implied Probability
Philadelphia Eagles -125 (55.56%)
Dallas Cowboys +180 (35.71%)
Washington Commanders +1100 (8.33%)
New York Giants +2000 (4.76%)
Model Probability - Implied Probability = Value
Eagles 66.00% - 55.56% = 10.44%
Cowboys 32.30% - 35.71% = --3.41%
Commanders 1.20% - 8.33% = --7.13%
Giants 0.50% - 4.76% = --4.26%
Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -125 / 10.44% Value
Am I buying it?
Not exactly. I do think the Eagles are the best team in the division and are rightly favored. However, during the Ceedee Lamb saga the line on the Cowboys stretched out and it hasn't quite come back yet. At +180 they look like the best bet at the moment, but these odds are probably about where they should be. I wouldn't bet on either of them at the current line.
NFC North
Best Available Odds & Implied Probability
Detroit Lions +130 (43.48%)
Green Bay Packers +230 (30.30%)
Chicago Bears +375 (21.05%)
Minnesota Vikings +1100 (8.33%)
Model Probability - Implied Probability = Value
Lions 27.30% - 43.48% = --16.18%
Packers 25.10% - 30.30% = --5.20%
Bears 40.00% - 21.05% = 18.95%
Vikings 7.60% - 8.33% = --0.73%
Best Bet: Chicago Bears +375 / 18.95% Value
Am I buying it?
Look, the model was clearly smoking some crack when it put the Bears' chances of winning the division at 40%, but I'm 100% on board with this being the best division winner bet in the NFC North. In fact, this is my favorite division winner bet this year. I played it at +350 and have been considering adding more. It's doubtful the Bears are the best team in the North, but they have the easiest schedule BY FAR. They also have a ton of offensive weapons that could keep them in almost any game. I love this bet. (If you're interested, the +375 is at BetOnline. You can get +340 at FanDuel, which I don't mind.)
NFC South
Best Available Odds & Implied Probability
Atlanta Falcons -130 (56.52%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +333 (23.09%)
New Orleans Saints +550 (15.38%)
Carolina Panthers +1100 (8.33%)
Model Probability - Implied Probability = Value
Falcons 73.00% - 56.52% = 16.48%
Buccaneers 6.00% - 23.09% = --17.09%
Saints 20.00% - 15.38% = 4.62%
Panthers 1.00% - 8.33% = --7.33%
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons -130 / 16.48% Value
Am I buying it?
Yes and no. The Falcons should be the favorites in this division. They have the most offensive talent by quite a bit and made a couple of nice moves to shore up their defense with Judon and Simmons. If anything, I think people are dismissing the Falcons a bit because of their defensive struggles last year. They also had horrific QB play and were in the mix. But it's hard to look away from the Saints at +550. They have a veteran QB and decent skill position players. They have a good defense. So I'm going to say this is the current bet with the most value even though I like the Falcons to take it.
NFC West
Best Available Odds & Implied Probability
San Francisco 49ers -190 (65.52%)
LA Rams +350 (22.22%)
Seattle Seahawks +800 (11.11%)
Arizona Cardinals +1300 (7.14%)
Model Probability - Implied Probability = Value
49ers 59.60% - 65.52% = --5.92%
Rams 19.50% - 22.22% = --2.72%
Seahawks 15.90% - 11.11% = 4.79%
Cardinals 5.00% - 7.14% = --2.14%
Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks +800 / 4.79% Value
Am I buying it?
Sure, why not? The 49ers are the favorites for a reason and I fully expect to see them in the mix for the number one seed again. But if they fall off (whether it's because Trent Williams doesn't sign, they face injuries, or something else) the rest of these teams are all in the mix. Are the Seahawks really that far behind the Rams? I don't think the gap should be this big. I won't be betting this, but I can go along with it.
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