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Weekly overreaction to NFL results is a time-honored tradition. For some reason, the reaction to week 10 seems to be even more than usual. I see value in betting two teams in week 11 based on the belief that they are who we thought they were.


Philadelphia Eagles

In Week 10 the Eagles lost an ugly game to the Commanders. It was a bad look, there's no denying that. But a team that was nearly unanimously considered one of the top 3 teams in the league a week ago is now favored by only 6.5 over the Colts? We'll get to them, but first, consider these factors.

  • Had the officials called the blatant facemask against Goedert, we might still be talking about an undefeated Eagles team.

  • The Eagles know stopping the run is their weak spot. That's why they went and picked up aging run stuffers Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh this week. Great front office work.

  • Yes, the Eagles schedule is soft, but they beat the two best teams they've played to date 24-7 (MIN) and 26-17 (DAL). I think it's more likely they get bored against bad teams than it is that they aren't as good as we thought.

  • Losing a game can remind a team they can't take any team for granted. Let's talk about those Colts.

Now let's talk about the Colts. The Colts have been terrible this year. Last week they beat an equally terrible Raiders team. But now we think they're a viable NFL football team again? Consider these things.

  • The Colts needed a 40 yard run from the elderly Matt Ryan just to beat the Raiders. I'll go ahead and bet he doesn't do that again.

  • Matt Ryan was terrible before he got benched. Now he's magically going to be competent coming back?

  • The green new HC and playcaller for the Colts got a win in their first week on the job. That doesn't mean we are wrong to question their long-term viability in those positions.

  • Shaq Leonard is out for the Colts. Their hope in this game is to run the ball and play good defense. This hurts those chances.

To summarize, I believe both these teams are who we thought they were before Week 10. The Eagles are one of the top 3 teams in the league and the Colts are swirling around somewhere near the bottom.

Based on all that, here's how I'm betting this game.
  • PHI -3.5 1H (-110) 2U

  • PHI -6.5 (-115) 1U

  • Correct Score PHI 35 - IND 10 (+44000) $1

  • I am also considering an alt spread of PHI -13.5 and IND TT u17.5.


Buffalo Bills

As a Vikings fan, I just couldn't resist using this picture. But maybe Buffalo can forgive me since the rest of this will be a case for betting them this week. Yes, it's been a bit of a rough patch for the Bills after a hot start to the season, but consider the following.

  • They had the game against the Vikings won. Sure, the Vikings can say that too, but if that game played out similarly 10 times, I think the Bills win at least 8 of them.

  • They have been riddled with injures, especially on defense. This is part of the NFL, I get it. But I also get that we can't pretend those injuries don't make a big difference, especially when there are so many to key players.

  • Given what we know today, they only have one bad loss, even with the injuries--to the Jets by 3. And even that might be forgiven since the Jets seem to be much better than most of us anticipated.

  • They know that at 6-3 they can't afford to screw around and lose any more games in order to secure the division and have any shot at the #1 seed in the AFC.

So this weekend a slightly healthier Bills team escapes snowy and frigid Orchard Park to play the Brown in Detroit. Once again, I believe the Bills are who we thought they were, the best team in the league when healthy.

Based on all that, here's how I'm betting this game.
  • BUF -7 (-128) To win 1U I do have a slight fear of the back door cover in this game, so I'll lay a little juice for my primary bet to get the hook.

  • BUF -13 (+157) 0.5U Half of Buffalo's wins have come by 21 or more. I'll back it down a bit to -13 on the alt spread.

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