Mount St. Mary's vs Iona - 7:00 pm
Iona was dominant in the MAAC this year. They did have a couple of pretty bad slip-ups along the way--namely a 53-70 loss to Siena and a 58-81 loss to Quinnipiac. Those losses are in the rearview heading into the MAAC tournament. They have run off 12 straight wins since that loss to Siena, with 8 of them coming by double digits.
Mount St. Mary's needed overtime to secure a 1-point win over Canisius in the opening round of the tournament. They have won 5 of their last 6, so I suppose you could say they have some momentum, but the wins have come over other mediocre to poor teams. Their losses to Iona came by 12 and 30 points this year.
One of the things I'm paying attention to is the early games in the conference tournament for teams that are clearly the best in their conference. Iona is one of those teams. They'll take everyone's best shot, but unless they play terribly, teams like MSM have no shot. I like Iona to get up early and not look back.
Pick: Iona -12.5 (-110) FanDuel
Georgetown vs Villanova - 8:00 pm
The high point of Georgetown's season came a few weeks ago when they went into Indianapolis and knocked off Butler. I picked Georgetown in that game because I thought Butler had become overrated. (I'm not tooting my own horn--I've lost plenty of bets lately!) My point in saying that is that it had more to do with the perception of Butler being too high than it did with Georgetown being good. They followed that win up with losses of 9, 20, and 40 to end the season.
Villanova stumbled in the season finale against Connecticut, going down 59-71. (I bet on Nova in that game, so there's one of those losses I mentioned!) In retrospect, this loss wasn't shocking. UConn is playing as well as anyone in the conference right now and have a great chance to win the Big East. I think that game said more about them than it did about Nova.
I think Nova is on the bottom edge of the top tier of this conference with Providence. They tied Seton Hall in the conference standings, but now that they're healthy they're better than that middle tier where the Hall sits. This game could be close in the first half, but I'm fading Georgetown. I think they hit their high point by winning a single game a few weeks ago and will bow out with a big loss here.
Pick: Villanova -12 (-110) WynnBet
Boston College vs North Carolina - 7:00 pm
I've taken two big favorites, so let's balance it out with a big dog--not to be confused with a big dogg. Betting Boston College this year requires holding your nose and following the numbers on a team that hasn't been very good. I mean, they just lost by 8 to Georgia Tech four days ago!
While BC can be very bad, they've also been competitive in a lot of games this season. Before that loss to GT they beat Wake Forest and Virginia. Their lone game against UNC was in Chapel Hill, and they lost by 8.
There's no doubt UNC is the better team in this game, but that's reflected by a wide line, and I'm not sure they've played well enough to deserve it. They have some nice wins, but they have failed to come through in some big spots--most recently at home in their rivalry with Duke where they lost by 5. UNC does have more talent, without a doubt. They probably get the win here, but double digits seems wide. I'll hold my nose and take BC.
Pick: Boston College +10.5 (-110) DraftKings
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