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Will the Patriots go over or under 8.5 wins?


Each week I'm wading deep into the numbers for NFL futures bets. My favorite one this week is on the New England Patriots who are currently at nearly even odds to go over or under 8.5 wins. So which way am I going? Here's the info that led me to a decision.

 

Remaining Schedule

The most important thing I look at each week is the remaining schedule. Here's what the Patriots have left.

  • Buffalo

  • @Arizona

  • @Las Vegas

  • Cincinnati

  • Miami

  • @Buffalo

At 6 wins, they need to go 3-3 the rest of the way to hit the over, or fall short in 4 of the six games to cash the under.


Expected Wins: There's a good chance New England will be favored against Arizona and Las Vegas, though those lines may be close depending on what happens against Buffalo this Thursday.


Expected Losses: It's hard to imagine New England being favored in either of their games against Buffalo (currently +5.5 for this week), or their games against Cincinnati or Miami, though those games are at home.

 

Team Evaluation

I believe, if anything, that this team is slightly overvalued by the market. Their offense is one-dimensional, though Stevenson has been phenomenal running the ball. Yes, Mac Jones torched the Vikings defense, but the Vikings refused to adjust their scheme until the last drive, so Jones was never under duress.


The defense is good. Judon is a top-tier NFL linebacker and no offense should expect to run up and down the field. However, Minnesota showed that if you can stave off the pass rush it is possible to move the ball on this team.


I believe all of the games remaining on the schedule for the Patriots are potentially bad matchups. All of these teams can put up points. Some of them struggle on defense, but the Patriots offense may not be able to take full advantage of that.

 

My Take: New England Under 8.5 Wins (-115) To Win 2 Units

At this point, it probably isn't a shock that I'm riding the under here. I really just need New England to lose the four games they're expected to lose. Even if they don't, they're fully capable of losing to Arizona or Las Vegas away from home. I put the chance of New England winning 8 or fewer games at 63%. With a line of -115, the market has an implied probability of 53.49%, giving me +9.51% on expected probability.

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