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WIN - LOSS RANGE AND PREDICTION FOR ALL 32 NFL TEAMS


Kyler Murray dropping back to pass

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Low: 0-17
High: 4-13
Prediction: 2-15

Look, we chose Kyler Murray for the picture even though he might not even play this year--that should tell you what you need to know. We'll begin the season with Josh Dobbs at QB, an aging James Conner at RB, and the ever-inconsistent Hollywood Brown as the featured receiver. This is a year to tank for Caleb and see what you've got in some of the young guys. Giving them two wins might be generous, but teams fall into one here and there.



Bijan Robinson running through a hole against the Bengals

ATLANTA FALCONS

Low: 7-10
High: 12-5
Prediction: 9-8

Yeah, yeah, it's a super-wide range on the low and high with the Falcons. The reality is that they are an average team with the second easiest schedule in the league and they're going to be in a lot of close games. Could they win them all like the Vikings last year, sure. Could they lose them all like the Raiders did a few years ago, I guess. But we'll go with the likely scenario they fall somewhere in the middle and contend in the weak NFC South.



Lamar Jackson scrambling out of the pocket

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Low: 9-8
High: 13-4
Prediction: 11-6

If Lamar stays healthy the Ravens should have an explosive offense this year. They actually have more than one good wide receiver, they still have Mark Andrews, and JJ Dobbins should be back to something like normal now that his knee injury is far enough in the rear view. It's actually the defense that is likely to determine how high this win total can go. They already have injury issues and the season hasn't started, and while the first unit is good, they aren't very deep.



Josh Allen giving a thumbs up

BUFFALO BILLS

Low: 9-8
High: 15-2
Prediction: 11-6

The Bills are healthy again on defense aside from Von Miller (and yes, it hurts them to have him out). They have great offensive weapons, including an emerging James Cook in the backfield, and one of the top three QBs in the league. The high variance on their win total comes from the fact that they play in the AFC and will face a tough schedule. This is one of the best teams in the league, but they're not head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in that top tier.



Brian Burns with a shiny face shield

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Low: 3-14
High: 7-10
Prediction: 5-12

The Panthers come into the season with the diminutive Bryce Young leading the charge in his rookie season. He might be okay in the long run, but he's likely to have some rookie growing pains and the talent around him is below average. When Adam Theilen on his last legs is one of your primary receiving options you're not in a good place. Brian Burns and company will have to play great to keep this team in games and give them a chance to go over this projection (if he's even playing, that is). The only thing really in their favor is that they play in a weak division.



Justin Fields holding a football

CHICAGO BEARS

Low: 5-12
High: 8-9
Prediction: 6-11

I know lots of people out there think this is going to be a breakout year for Justin Fields and the Bears, and I've been wrong plenty of times before, but I just don't think so. Fields is an inaccurate passer. The weapons are upgraded, but that matters less when you have a QB who can't put it on them. The Bears also upgraded their linebacking corps, but unless they trade for Chris Jones the rest of the defense won't be able to hold up their end of the bargain. We'll find out a lot more about this team in week one against Green Bay.



Joe Burrow pointing at his helmet with both hands

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Low: 9-8
High: 14-3
Prediction: 11-6

Joe Burrow and the Bengals are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but so are quite a few other teams in the AFC. There's little bad to say about this team. The offensive line came together down the stretch last year, the weapons are first-class, and Lou Anarumo will have the defense playing at a high level once again. If this team played in the NFC they'd hit 13+ wins, and they might do it anyway, but in a tough conference and the toughest division in football it will be tough.



Nick Chubb running away from defenders

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Low: 8-9
High: 13-4
Prediction: 10-7

If this team had a different QB and a different tradition I'd bet them to win the division at over 3-to-1. Nick Chubb is a menace, they added Elijah Moore to make this a very good skill position unit, they have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and the defense is stacked with talent. On paper, this roster can compete with anyone, except for Watson. He is likely to be better than last year, but I just don't believe in him to perform to the level he needs to for the Browns to take out the top teams in the conference.



Micah Parsons with his arms stretched out

DALLAS COWBOYS

Low: 10-7
High: 13-4
Prediction: 11-6

This is a team that will push the Eagles for the NFC East crown and could make a run to the Super Bowl in a weak NFC. Their offensive skill position unit is great, the offensive line is strong, and the defense will be one of the top units in the league again this year. They really just need Dak to turn the ball over less. He didn't play well last year, but he also had some pretty bad luck to turn it over as much as he did. The Cowboys are a team to watch in the NFC.



Sean Payton coaching

DENVER BRONCOS

Low: 5-12
High: 10-7
Prediction: 8-9

It's really hard to know what we're going to get from the Broncos this year. Is Russ cooked or can he still cook? The defense should be good again and the offensive line is improved. Most importantly, and most obviously, the Broncos go from a coach who couldn't even make it through a season to one of the best in the league. That has to make a 3-game difference, right?



Aman Ra St. Brown flexing his bicep

DETROIT LIONS

Low: 7-10
High: 13-4
Prediction: 10-7

It's funny with the Lions. A few months ago there was a ton of hype, then we went through a period where everyone started saying they might be overvalued, and now it seems like most people don't know what to think. This is a team with a solid roster across the board. They are a little light on offensive weapons, but if Sam LaPorta can contribute it could help to address that. The offensive line is great again and Jared Goff has proved to be a good QB when he has time. The defense added some pieces and should be improved. The Lions are basically Cleveland Browns-light. They're good everywhere, but not great. That could be enough to capture the North.



Jordan Love throwing a football

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Low: 5-12
High: 9-8
Prediction: 7-10

Jordan Love is apparently already a Hall of Famer, but I prefer to actually see him play a little first. The Packers' defense should be solid, and with an easy schedule that will keep them in most games. The offensive line is fine and that should give Love some time to try and find his young receiving corps. Two veteran RBs will add some stability to the offense. I hate the Packers, so maybe seven wins is wishful thinking on my part, but I just can't go higher until I see Jordan Love do it in live-action.



CJ Stroud scrambling in the pocket

HOUSTON TEXANS

Low: 2-15
High: 6-11
Prediction: 4-13

The Texans got a pair of high draft picks in Stroud and Anderson as well as a new coach in DeMeco Ryans who comes over from the 49ers. They added a lot of mid-tier veteran talent in free agency too. It should look better for the Texans, but it still won't be pretty. Stroud looks like he needs time to grow into the NFL game, the skill position group is not very good, and the offensive line is still going to be middling at best. This is a team that has upside in the next few years, but they're not there yet.



Anthony Richardson throwing a football

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Low: 2-15
High: 7-10
Prediction: 4-13

This is a dysfunctional organization. On top of that, they've decided to throw Anthony Richardson in there and hope for the best. No doubt he'll produce some highlight-reel plays, but he'll probably produce more errant passes and turnovers. The offensive line underachieved last year, but there's no way to be sure they'll bounce back. The defense lost a few solid pieces as well. This may be the worst team that actually thinks they could compete for the playoffs.



Trevor Lawrence looking perplexed

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Low: 9-8
High: 14-3
Prediction: 11-6

The hip thing to do the past month has been to fade the Jags and pick the Titans to win the weak AFC South. I don't see it. Yes, the offensive line is a concern. Yes, the defense has a lot to prove. But this is a breakout year for Trevor Lawrence and he has all the tools to take the next step. The addition of Calvin Ridley is going to be massive. If this team played in any other division in the AFC I'd have them with at least one less win, but their chances of surpassing 11 are greater than the chances they fall short of it.



Patrick Mahomes escaping the pocket

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Low: 10-7
High: 16-1
Prediction: 13-4

There are a few concerns for the Chiefs this year. If Chris Jones doesn't come back it leaves a gaping hole in the middle and leaves the Chiefs looking for answers on how to generate pressure on defense. Other than Travis Kelce, the skill position players are unproven at best. When you're excited about getting Kadarius Toney back, you know you're pretty thin at receiver. But as long as Mahomes is healthy and Reid is on the sidelines it's unwise to be against the Chiefs finding a way to get it done.



Davante Adams running with the football

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Low: 3-14
High: 8-9
Prediction: 6-11

The Raiders have pieces--just not enough of them. Davante Adams is still one of the best receivers in the league. Josh Jacobs proved himself to be a very good NFL running back. Bringing in Jacoby Myers as a number two receiver was a good get and they drafted Michael Mayer to take the place of the oft-injured Darren Waller. Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones can cause havoc in the backfield and Marcus Peters comes in to provide a veteran presence in the secondary. But in a stacked AFC there are just too many holes--a weak offensive line, mediocre QB, and porous defense to name a few. In the AFC South, this team competes. But in the AFC West, with a schedule in the top five in terms of difficulty, I don't see how they do, but they are dangerous.



Justin Herbert throwing the football

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Low: 9-8
High: 13-4
Prediction: 12-5

This is a team that could contend for the Super Bowl, the only problem is they're the Chargers. They have a near-league-top offensive line, a great QB, good skill position talent across the board, a strong pass rush, and a good secondary. The change in offensive coordinator to Kellen Moore should open up the offense. They do need to shore up their run defense and stay healthy. If they do, they might finally overcome their perpetual habit of falling short of their potential.



Aaron Donald standing on the defensive line

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Low: 2-15
High: 5-12
Prediction: 3-14

The bill for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl is coming due, and it's a hefty one. This is a team that basically has Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. Cooper Kupp is hurt and we didn't even make it to week 1. Behind a bad offensive line, it can't be long before Matt Stafford joins him on the sideline. At that point, it wouldn't be a shock to see the Rams start dealing the pieces they have, including Donald, to try and begin building their future.



Tyreek Hill running on the football field

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Low: 8-9
High: 13-4
Prediction: 10-7

Losing Jalen Ramsey for the first part of the season is a bummer, but at least it looks like he'll be back. Obviously, the big question here is Tua's health, but we'll proceed as though he can make it through the season. If he does this team has a chance in every game they play. They likely have the most dynamic receiver tandem in the league, a solid defense, and good coaching. It's tough to project too many wins for any team in the AFC East, but this should be a year where Miami takes a strong step forward.



Kirk Cousins warming up

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Low: 7-10
High: 12-5
Prediction: 10-7

There are two big questions for the Vikings. First, can they protect Kirk Cousins? If they can he is an elite passer with the best receiver in the league and one of the top five tight ends. Second, can the defense be average under the leadership of Brian Flores? Last year it looked like they were playing with eight men on the field. The talent hasn't been upgraded, so any improvement is going to have to come from scheme. If they can find their way to mediocre, this will be a solid team that competes to win the NFC North.



Mac Jones warming up

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Low: 5-12
High: 8-9
Prediction: 6-11

The Patriots have the league's toughest schedule. They have one of the worst receiving groups in the league (it says something when we have to be excited about Hunter Henry). Rhmondre Stevenson should have a great year, but that's about all the positive their is on the offense. Yes, the defense will be very good, but this might look just slightly better than the Jets last year. The defense will keep them in games but teams that find a way to score 20 beat them. It's been popular to be high on the Patriots recently, but I don't see a path for them given their lack of offensive talent and difficult schedule.



Derek Carr rolling out

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Low: 8-9
High: 14-3
Prediction: 10-7

We just talked about the team with the league's most difficult schedule--here's the team with the easiest. The Saints aren't stacked, but they're fine. Chris Olave looks like he'll be a star and the other skill-position players are solid. Alvin Kamara will be back after a short suspension looking to bounce back from a subpar performance last year. The defense lost a couple of pieces, but nothing crippling. This is a team that should do well in the regular season, thanks to their schedule, and flame out in the playoffs.



Daniel Jones standing in the pocket

NEW YORK GIANTS

Low: 4-13
High: 8-9
Prediction: 5-12

Brian Daboll is a great coach. A really great coach. Thanks to him this team overachieved last year and their playoff trouncing of the Vikings has them overrated. Daniel Jones is an average QB who benefitted from some turnover luck. They Have Darren Waller if he can stay healthy, and beyond that, their receivers are a collection of okay #2 and #3 guys. The defense has some nice pieces, like Kayvon Thibedeaux, but there are plenty of holes as well. This team has a tough schedule for an NFC team and this is a year they come back to earth a bit.



Aaron Rogers escaping pressure

NEW YORK JETS

Low: 7-10
High: 12-5
Prediction: 9-8

I picked a picture where Aaron Rodgers is trying to escape pressure for a reason. Yes, Rodgers is a massive upgrade over Zach Wilson. Yes, this defense should be very good again. Yes, Garrett Wilson is an emerging star. But the offensive line is shaky and that doesn't bode well for an aging QB. In addition, the talent level falls off a bit at the offensive skill positions when you get past Wilson. This team has a lot of hype, and they'll be good, but I think Jets fans will be disappointed at the end of the season.



Jalen Hurts throwing the football

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Low: 10-7
High: 14-3
Prediction: 12-5

The Eagles are the most complete team in the league. That doesn't mean each unit on their squad is the best, but taken as a whole, they're at the top. Their schedule is more difficult than the cupcake they had last year, but they're good enough to navigate it with just a few bumps along the way. Because of the talent on the Cowboys, it will be a fun race to see who wins the NFC East, but I expect both teams to secure double-digit wins. In the end, the Eagles' consistency will carry them to 12 wins and a narrow division title.



Kenny Pickett with his arms raised in celebration

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Low: 9-8
High: 13-4
Prediction: 10-7

It's another strong AFC North team! The Steelers have shored up their offensive line, gotten healthy on defense, and Kenny Pickett looks poised to take a step forward in year two. While organizational culture isn't my starting point for capping NFL teams, I don't ignore it either. The Steelers are competitive even when they're not that good, and this year the talent is there to put them in contention for the playoffs and even the division. A key for them will be increasing their defensive pressure rate, which plummeted to just over 16% last year.



Geno Smith throwing the football

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Low: 8-9
High: 11-6
Prediction: 10-7

Seattle rocketed into the playoffs in 2022, after being pegged to get only 5 wins after the departure of Russell Wilson. Now the expectations have increased. I'm a little uneasy about this prediction because Geno Smith didn't finish the year well and had some luck on dropped interceptions. However, the defense got better by bringing back Bobby Wagner and drafting Devon Witherspoon to form a formidable tandem at CB. They also added talent on the offensive side by drafting JSN and Zach Charbonnet. There's a lot of talent here. Geno can regress a little bit and this team can still get to 10 wins. After all, they play the Rams and the Cards twice.



Brock Purdy throwing the football

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Low: 9-8
High: 14-3
Prediction: 11-6

The starting units for the 49ers are great. The defensive line is one of the best in the league, the secondary is solid, and the offense features a variety of weapons. The question is, how will they navigate injuries if they come? Sure, you could say this about any team in the league, but especially on defense this team feels thin to me behind the starters. I also have my questions about Brock Purdy now that the league has the time to adjust to him. Sure, Kyle Shanahan can make magic with anybody back there, but there may be a little less magic than there was last year.



Baker Mayfield looking confused

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Low: 1-16
High: 5-12
Prediction: 4-13

This team actually has some talent. The offensive weapons are aging, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still receivers anyone would like to have. The defense has some great talent with guys like Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett, and Antoine Winfield Jr. The problem is they don't have a QB. Baker Mayfield will probably come out and light it up against the Vikings in week one, everyone will start thinking he can be a real QB, and then a couple of weeks later he'll tank. This league is just too tough to win without a real QB.



Ryan Tannehill running out of the tunnel

TENNESSEE TITANS

Low: 6-11
High: 10-7
Prediction: 7-10

The Titans are everyone's darling. Somehow it has become popular to pick them to take down the Jags to win the division. I'm not buying it. Yes, they have good coaching, they had some bad injury luck last year, and in particular, they played half the season with Malik Willis at QB. This team does have a great defensive line and with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins to Traylon Burkes (once he returns) this is a good skill group. There are two problems--the offensive line and defensive secondary. They probably have enough to perform well against the Colts and the Texans, but I don't see this team getting to .500.



Jahan Dotson breaking a tackle

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Low: 4-13
High: 7-10
Prediction: 5-12

The Commanders have some upside. If Sam Howell can be a real NFL QB he has. the weapons to make Washington's offense interesting. The defense has some real players too. But this team has too many holes to be truly optimistic. The offensive line is porous and Sam Howell is very unproven. The defense has too many spots where the talent level is subpar to think they'll hold teams down on a regular basis. This team is good enough to make their games interesting, but in the end, they're not good enough to rack up many wins.

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