Ball St vs. Purdue - Saturday, August 30 / 12:00 BTN

Ball State

Overview

Ball State enters the 2025 season unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls, projected at No. 134 in RJ Young's Ultimate 136 rankings. In 2024, the Cardinals finished 3-9 (2-6 MAC). Key 2024 stats: 21.2 PPG scored/28.3 allowed, 340 YPG total (150 rushing/190 passing); defense: 20 sacks, 15 turnovers forced. Advanced: Offensive success rate ~40%, EPA/play ~-0.05; defense success rate allowed ~42%.

Stability assessment: ~55% returning production (high on offense with QB Kelly and skill players, but ~60% defensive turnover from portal losses); allows moderate reliance on 2024 offensive priors, but defense projections based on transfers, discounting priors by ~35% for rebuilt units.

Coaching Changes

Mike Uremovich enters first year as HC (from Butler); staff finalized with internal promotions and hires like OL coach. Scheme continuity in balanced/run-focused offense; projected impact: +10% efficiency from veteran assistants interacting with high-returning offense, but adaptation risks on defense.

Roster Turnover

High turnover with ~20 departures (portal/graduation), including QB Semonza (transfer out), TE Koziol; 18 additions via transfers focus on defense/OL. Transfers from G5 levels upgrade athleticism in MAC, but scheme fit may cause early downgrades; e.g., new DBs need time with secondary losses.

Position	Player Name	Origin/Destination (for transfers)	Prior Stats/Accolades	Projected Impact
DB	L'Cier Luter	Cass Technical (recruit)	High school star	Depth boost; +10% coverage, fits rebuild.
DL	George Okorie	PPI Recruits (transfer in)	Tackles/sacks	Run-stop upgrade; +5% EPA/run, no downgrade.
WR	Koby Gross	Transfer in	Receiver	Explosive plays; +10% passing, scheme fit.
QB	Kadin Semonza	Transfer out	Starter, pass yds	Major loss; -15% efficiency, Kelly mitigates.
TE	Tanner Koziol	Transfer out	All-MAC	Red-zone hole; -10% scoring, additions fill.
DB	Qian Magwood	Transfer out	Coverage	Secondary hit; -10% TOs, portal offsets.
P	Adam Saul	Transfer in	Punter	Special teams +; +5% field position.
S	New safeties (5)	Various transfers	Combined experience	Safety upgrade; +15% backend stability, but gel time.

Recent News Updates

As of August 29, 2025, no reported injuries or suspensions; buzz on QB Kiael Kelly as starter, special teams revamp with transfers. Depth chart emphasizes defense rebuild per camp pressers.

Purdue

Overview

Purdue is ranked No. 99 in RJ Young's rankings, unranked in AP/Coaches. 2024 record: 1-11 (0-9 Big Ten). Key stats: 19.5 PPG scored/35.2 allowed, 350 YPG total (140 rushing/210 passing); defense: 25 sacks, 12 turnovers. Advanced: Offensive EPA ~ -0.10, success ~38%; defense EPA allowed 0.15, ~45% allowed.

Stability: Low (~45% production, major turnover with new staff); projections based on transfers, discount 2024 priors by 50% for all units.

Coaching Changes

New HC Barry Odom (from UNLV), OC John Henson, DC Mike Scherer. Scheme shift to aggressive defense; impact: +15% turnover margin, but early risks with roster integration.

Roster Turnover

~40 departures (portal/NFL), 30+ additions rebuilding all units. Transfers from Power 4/G5 upgrade talent in Big Ten, but downgrades in cohesion.

Position	Player Name	Origin/Destination (for transfers)	Prior Stats/Accolades	Projected Impact
DB	Tony Grimes	UNLV (transfer in)	Coverage	Secondary boost; +10% pass defense.
WR	Nitro Tuggle	Georgia (transfer in)	Explosive	+15% receiving EPA.
QB	Joshua Sales	Brownsburg (recruit)	HS star	Backup depth.
WR	Nathan Leacock	Millbrook (transfer in)	Receiver	Depth upgrade.
RB	Dante Dowdell	Transfer out	Rusher	Loss, -10% ground game.
DL	Princewall Umanmielen	Transfer out	Sacks	Pass-rush hole; -10% pressure.
CB	Myles Slusher	Transfer in	Versatile	Coverage +; fits scheme.
OL	New additions	Various	Starts	OL stability, +10% protection.

Recent News Updates

As of August 29, 2025, no major injuries/suspensions; depth chart not released, buzz on rebuilt defense looking strong in camp.

Matchup Evaluation

Offense vs. Defense Matchups: Ball State's run game (~150 YPG projected via Kelly) vs. Purdue's front seven (rebuilt, project ~40% success allowed based on transfers). Purdue edges with additions. Ball passing vs. Purdue secondary (overhauled, ~38% allowed). Purdue offense (committee run) vs. Ball defense: Purdue exploits Ball's turnover (~42% success allowed).

Coaching and Scheme Fits: Uremovich's balanced vs. Odom's aggressive—Purdue edges in pressure, but Ball's pace could tire thin DL.

Roster Impacts: Key: Purdue DL vs. Ball OL (high return but MAC level); transfers favor Purdue depth, turnover creates Ball TO opportunities.

Intangibles: Purdue home advantage (Ross-Ade, ~60k), short travel for Ball (~2 hrs); weather forecast mid-80s, clear. Early rust; no rivalry.

Historical Context: Purdue 8-0 all-time, but discount due to ~50% combined turnover.

Strengths: Ball—QB mobility; Purdue—talent depth. Weaknesses: Ball—conference downgrade; Purdue—cohesion. Advantages: Purdue overall.

Betting Edges

Spread Purdue -17.5 overvalues rebuild vs. Ball's stability—edge Ball +17.5 ATS. Total 50.5 neutral. Projected score: Ball State 17-34 (Purdue dominates trenches, Ball scores via Kelly scrambles).

Monte Carlo Simulations

Projected expected points: Ball State ~17 (offense vs. rebuilt defense), Purdue ~34 (talent edges, home). Poisson with variability for TOs/special teams.

Win probabilities: Ball State 1.5%, Purdue 97.9%, Tie 0.6%. Average simulated score: Ball State 16.7 - Purdue 34.1.

Score Outcome (Ball State-Purdue)	Probability (%)
19-37	1.2
15-33	1.0
16-34	1.0
15-35	0.8
17-38	0.8
17-39	0.8
15-36	0.8
14-38	0.8
16-36	0.7
19-32	0.7
13-39	0.7
12-29	0.7
12-34	0.7
16-40	0.7
15-32	0.7
13-35	0.7
17-35	0.7
12-32	0.7
17-37	0.7
19-30	0.7