Northwestern vs. Tulane - Saturday, August 30 / 12:00 ESPNU

Northwestern

Overview

Northwestern enters the 2025 season unranked in the AP and Coaches Polls, with projections around No. 55 in extended rankings. In 2024, the Wildcats finished 4-8 (2-8 Big Ten). Key 2024 stats include ~20.5 PPG scored/28.2 allowed, ~350 YPG total (150 rushing/200 passing); defense: ~25 sacks, 15 turnovers forced. Advanced: Offensive EPA/play ~-0.05, success rate ~40%; defense EPA allowed ~0.10, success rate allowed ~45% (inferred from conference averages due to limited specifics).

Stability Assessment

Moderate returning production (~60% overall, with 8 starters back including key secondary and RB), but high turnover in QB/OL (new transfer QB, ~50% line production lost). This allows partial reliance on 2024 defensive priors for backend units, but offensive projections heavily based on transfers, discounting priors by ~40% for revamped positions.

Coaching Changes

David Braun enters his third year, overhauling coordinators: Zach Lujan hired as OC (QB emphasis from prior roles), Tim McGarigle as DC (linebackers focus), Paul Creighton as ST coordinator (from Washington). Projected impact: Lujan's scheme shifts to QB-centric passing (+15% projected EPA/pass), interacting positively with transfer QB but risking early OL mismatches; McGarigle maintains aggressive defense, potentially +10% in run stops with roster depth.

Roster Turnover

Northwestern had ~25 departures (portal/graduation), with key losses in QB and lines; ~15 additions via transfers/recruits rebuild offense. Transfers from G5/Power 4 offer upgrades in athleticism for Big Ten, but scheme fit and gel time may cause initial downgrades.

Position	Player Name	Origin/Destination (for transfers)	Prior Stats/Accolades	Projected Impact
QB	Preston Stone	SMU (transfer in)	2024: 2,200+ pass yds, 15+ TDs	Starter boost; +20% passing efficiency, upgrade from AAC but needs OL time.
WR	Chase Farrell	Transfer in	Explosive	Depth +10% explosive plays, fits passing scheme.
RB	Cam Porter	Returning	500+ rush yds	Lead back; stability in run, +5% success rate.
DB	Devin Turner	Transfer in	Coverage	Secondary upgrade; +10% TOs, no downgrade.
QB	Previous starter	Portal out	Limited	Loss of continuity; -15% early offense.
OL	Herzog	Returning (injury recovery)	Starter	Line stability; +10% protection if healthy.
DL	Princewall Umanmielen	Portal out	4 sacks	Pass-rush hole; -10% pressure, additions mitigate.
LB	Returning group	Internal	Tackles	Depth strength; no major change.

Recent News Updates

As of August 29, 2025, no major injuries reported; depth chart emphasizes transfer QB Preston Stone and returning RB Cam Porter, with buzz on revamped offense in camp. No suspensions; healthy roster noted.

Tulane

Overview

Tulane is unranked in AP/Coaches but projected ~No. 46, AAC preseason favorite. 2024 record: 9-5 (7-1 AAC). Stats: ~28 PPG scored/22 allowed, ~400 YPG (180 rushing/220 passing); defense: ~30 sacks, 20 TOs. Advanced: Off EPA ~0.08, success ~45%; def EPA ~-0.05, success allowed ~40%.

Stability Assessment

Low (~52% production, 5 returning starters), high turnover with transfers; projections based on additions, discounting 2024 priors by 40% for rebuilt units.

Coaching Changes

Jon Sumrall HC (second year), Joe Craddock OC, hires like Will Hall pass game coordinator (from Southern Miss), Kanan Ray OL assistant. Impact: Continuity in up-tempo offense, Hall +15% passing; interacts with QB battle for efficiency gains.

Roster Turnover

~30 departures, 25+ additions rebuilding; low stability but key transfers upgrade.

Position	Player Name	Origin/Destination (for transfers)	Prior Stats/Accolades	Projected Impact
QB	Jake Retzlaff	BYU (transfer in)	2,300 yds, 15 TDs	Contender; +15% EPA, downgrade from Big 12?
QB	Kadin Semonza	Ball State (transfer in)	Starter	Battle depth; +10% dual-threat.
RB	Tawee Walker	Oklahoma (transfer in)	450 yds	Lead; +10% rush success, downgrade level.
DL	Kam Hamilton	Returning	4.5 sacks	Anchor; stability +10% pressure.
QB	Darian Mensah	Portal out	Starter	Loss -20% efficiency, battle fills.
DL	Santana Hopper	App State (transfer in)	Tackles	Front boost; +5% run stop.
TE	Caleb Schmitz	Portal out	Depth	Minor hit.
CB	Kalen Carroll	Portal out	Coverage	Secondary -10%, additions mitigate.

Recent News Updates

As of August 29, 2025, QB Brendan Sullivan update (recovering), TE Thompson knee questionable; depth chart QB battle Retzlaff/Semonza. No suspensions; buzz on transfers.

Matchup Evaluation

Offense vs. Defense Matchups: Northwestern run (~150 YPG projected) vs. Tulane front (returning Hamilton, Hopper transfer: ~40% success allowed). Tulane edges pressure. Northwestern passing (Stone ~60% comp) vs. Tulane secondary (rebuild, ~42% allowed). Tulane offense (Retzlaff dual-threat) vs. Northwestern defense: Tulane rush exploits NW line (~ +0.05 EPA/rush).

Coaching and Scheme Fits: Braun/Lujan's passing vs. Sumrall's aggressive— Tulane pace edges tiring NW rotations.

Roster Impacts: Key: Tulane DL vs. NW OL (injury risks); transfers favor Tulane depth, turnover opportunities for NW TOs.

Intangibles: Tulane home (Yulman Stadium), NW travel (~1,000 miles); weather 82F, partial clouds, rain chance. Early rust; no rivalry.

Historical Context: Tulane leads 3-1, last 1956; irrelevant due to ~60% turnover.

Strengths: Northwestern—secondary; Tulane—offense pace. Weaknesses: Northwestern—OL; Tulane—def gel. Advantages: Tulane talent/home.

Betting edges: Spread Tulane -4.5 undervalues home defense; edge Tulane ATS. Total 45.5 undervalues offenses; edge over. Projected score: Northwestern 21-27 (Tulane exploits mismatches, NW scores via TOs).

Monte Carlo Simulations

Projected expected points: Northwestern ~21 (passing vs. rebuild), Tulane ~27 (offense vs. line). Poisson with randomness.

Win probabilities: Northwestern 20.4%, Tulane 76.1%, Tie 3.5%.

Average simulated score: Northwestern 20.8 - Tulane 26.8.

Score Outcome (Northwestern-Tulane)	Probability (%)
19-24	0.9
20-21	0.8
20-23	0.8
20-24	0.8
23-26	0.8
24-25	0.8
29-22	0.8
23-33	0.7
18-25	0.7
18-31	0.7
18-26	0.7
18-28	0.7
23-27	0.7
23-25	0.7
22-30	0.7
19-28	0.7
22-25	0.7
16-25	0.7
27-28	0.7
23-28	0.6