What do you get when you pair countless hours of research with an AI fueled model? Win total projections, that's what!
10: Baltimore Ravens UNDER 10.5 (+103) BetRivers
Delta between line and projected wins: 0.74
The Ravens have the reigning MVP and they signed Derrick Henry to pair with him in the backfield. The big concerns for the Ravens are the offensive line and the defense. With Mike Macdonald gone to the Seahawks, will the defense show significant regression? The model thinks there will be enough to fuel an under.
9: LA Chargers UNDER 8.5 (+130) ESPNBet
Delta between line and projected wins: 0.68
Jim Harbaugh comes into a Chargers franchise that has wallowed in the coaching disaster that was Brandon Staley. He should bring stability and turn things around eventually, but this looks like a soft rebuild. The biggest reason to fear the under is one of the softest schedules in the league.
8: Cleveland Browns OVER 8.5 (-135) DraftKings
Delta between line and projected wins: 1.2
The Browns have strong coaching, good offensive weapons, and a talented defense. The biggest question is at QB where Deshaun Watson will have to prove he can still be an NFL passer. The good news for the Browns is that they have a competent backup in Jameis Winston. Now if the defense can just play well on the road...
7: Detroit Lions UNDER 10.5 (+115) BetOnline
Delta between line and projected wins: 1.17
The Lions were so close to the Super Bowl last year, and they'll be a good team again. The question is if they're significantly better than the other teams in their division and the top half of the NFC. They shored up the defensive line a bit, but it remains to be seen if they can stop good offenses. Look, I don't feel great about this one, but I have to follow the numbers.
6: Minnesota Vikings OVER 6.5 (-140) DraftKings
Delta between line and projected wins: 1.35
It's Sam Darnold time! No, that's probably not a good thing, but the Vikings added Aaron Jones and should be able to scheme around Darnold's weaknesses. The defense added some nice pieces and Brian Flores will have them flying around. This team isn't so far behind the others in the division, they just have a brutal schedule.
5: Atlanta Falcons OVER 9.5 (-139) BetRivers
Delta between line and projected wins: 1.34
Kirk Cousins is a very good QB. It's hard to overstate the difference between Ridder and Cousins. We have yet to see if Cousins is completely healed from his Achilles tear. But if he is, this team should be good. They have London, Pitts, and Robinson on offense. They added some helpful pieces on defense. And they have the easiest schedule in the league...by a lot.
4: Chicago Bears OVER 8.5 (-150) ESPNBet
Delta between line and projected wins: 1.54
You never know about rookie QBs, but Williams has projected as a good NFL QB for years and early looks in the preseason were promising. This is a team with tons of weapons on offense, a solid defense, and one of the easiest schedules in the league. If the Lions or Packers had their schedule you'd see an over pick for them here.
3: New Orleans Saints OVER 7.5 (-105) BetOnline
Delta between line and projected wins: 1.29
The Saints are pretty much what they were last year--a mediocre offense with a solid defense. The thing is, they play in a soft division and have the talent to compete with everyone except the very best teams in the league. There's nothing you haven't heard here, this is just a solid team that should be able to get to 8 or 9 wins.
2: Tennessee Titans OVER 6.5 (+110) Widely Available
Delta between line and projected wins: 1.21
The Titans have moved on from Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel. They brought in Brian Callahan from the Bengals, and he brought in his Dad, Bill Callahan, to coach the offensive line. This team has talent all over the field (except on the offensive line). If Will Levis can be average they have a high upside.
1: New England Patriots UNDER 4.5 (+110) DraftKings
Delta between line and projected wins: 1.61
If Drake Maye isn't really good, this could be an historically bad Patriots team. Bill Belichick left the cupboard almost completely bare. The strong point was the defense, which will still be good, but they traded away Matthew Judon to the Falcons. The offensive line is bad and there are no skill position players to speak of. Best of luck Drake Maye.
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