One of the principles of winning sports betting is to stay away from bets where you don't believe you have an edge. In other words, don't bet on everything. But that doesn't mean you can't at least consider it!
Here's what I'd do if I had to bet every win total in the NFC East. (And at the end of each team I let you know if I'm actually betting it or not.) All the lines are the best available from the five books I look at regularly (DK, FD, MGM, BR, BetOnline).
Dallas Cowboys
O/U 9.5 (-155/+140)
The Cowboys have a stacked defense, great skill position players, and a very good offensive line. If Dak can stay healthy and avoid throwing the ball to the other team, this is a team to keep your eye on. I have the Cowboys with 11 wins.
If I had to bet it: Over 9.5 (-155)
Am I betting it: I bet this at -150, so 5 cents more isn't too bad.
New York Giants
O/U 7.5 (+100/-105)
The Giants had a magical season in the first year of coach Brian Daboll. They made it to the playoffs and dismantled the Vikings. But I think they overachieved. They have no standout receivers, an iffy defensive secondary, and Daniel Jones is probably average. Some teams have to regress, and I think the Giants are one of them.
If I had to bet it: Under 7.5 (-105)
Am I betting it: Nope
Philadelphia Eagles
O/U 11.5 (+110/-115)
The Eagles were THIS CLOSE to hoisting the Lombardi trophy last year, and I don't see any reason to think they take a step back this year. Jalen Hurts has another year of experience under his belt, he's still playing behind an incredible offensive line, they have A.J. Brown, and a stout defense. The one mark against the Eagles is that their schedule last year was VERY soft, and it gets tougher this year. Racking up wins will be a bit more of a challenge. The line seems about right, so it comes down to plus money for this decision.
If I had to bet it: Over 11.5 (+110)
Am I betting it: Nope
Washington Commanders
O/U 6.5 (+110/-118)
There are plenty of questions in Washington. Can Sam Howell lead an NFL offense? Can Riverboat Ron keep his job? What will this team's name be next year? But when it comes to their wins this season, a lot does come down to the performance at QB. The defense has a good front and should be solid. The skill-position guys are a good group. But Sam Howell has to play behind a questionable line and it's very likely he's the worst QB in this division. Washington may be building toward something, but that still has them setting their sights on 3rd at best for this year.
If I had to bet it: Under 6.5 (-118)
Am I betting it: I took the under when it was plus money. At the current price I'd stay away.
Comments