Before sharing some targets, I want to briefly review the three types of bets I target.
Solid Home Favorites: These are teams I trust to be able to come back if they go down, especially at home.
Undervalued Dogs: These are teams I expect to keep it close (close is relative depending on the line), but because there's a high probability they will go down early, I can usually get a better line.
Back-and-Forth Battles: These are games I expect to be close all the way through. This provides an opportunity to create a middle where I can win if the game finishes close and lose small if it doesn't.
With that in mind, here are some teams I'm targeting today.
Solid Home Favorites
Xavier -5.5 vs Villanova
I covered this in today's write-up, but I like Xavier today. I'll consider adding more if they go down early and this is closer to a pick.
Pittsburgh -10.5 vs Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is bad and very bad on the road. Pittsburgh doesn't always blow people out, even when they should, so I'd like a shorter line to get involved here.
Texas -7.5 vs Iowa State
Iowa State's home/road splits are wide and Texas is good at home. However, ISU can stimey the opposing team's offense at times, so I'd prefer laying under 5.
Nevada -8.5 vs San Jose State
You'll see this game in the email-exclusive picks below. Nevada is a wagon at home. If I can add more live at a better line I'll certainly consider it.
Undervalued Dogs
Saint Louis +1 vs Richmond
Neither of these teams is very good ATS in conference play, but Saint Louis has more talent and the higher upside. I like the game to finish close, so if I can get some points on St. Louis with an early Richmond run I'd take them.
Indiana +3.5 vs Michigan State
This one is in my write-up today as well so I won't belabor it here. I'll look to add more if this number gets significantly wider.
Colorado State +11.5 vs San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly the better team (duh) but Colorado State one of the rare teams that might be better on the road than at home.
Back-and-Forth Battles
Tennessee vs Texas A&M (-110)
The line certainly indicates this should be close. I think this is low scoring, so if I can get 3.5 or more on each side I'll try to get in on it.
Baylor (-2.5) vs Kansas State
Baylor will try to bounce back from that collapse against Kansas in Manhattan where the Wildcats are very good at home. This one is more prone to some runs, so I'll look for more than 6 points on each side to get involved.
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