Indiana v Rutgers
Indiana came through with a relatively dominant win over Purdue on Saturday, and honestly, that's the only thing that makes me hesitant about them today. Will they be able to follow up such an emotional win with another good performance?
Indiana is 12-1 ATS at home this year and as that mark would indicate, they've been very strong at Assembly Hall. They beat Ohio State by 16, Michigan State by 13, Illinois by 15, and Wisconsin by 18. Yes, they have a couple of performances that haven't been as stellar---namely a close win over Minnesota and a loss to Northwestern--but they are trending in a positive direction. They are healthy, they are deep, and they are capable of beating almost anyone.
Rutgers has been good in conference play, going 9-3 ATS. However, they've struggled much more on the road than at home in the conference. In their last two away games, they lost by 11 to Iowa and 13 to Michigan State. If Indiana looks past Rutgers they will be in trouble, but if they come out with a strong effort I like them to cover this spread by at least three points.
Pick: Indiana - 4.5 (-105) FanDuel
Eastern Michigan v Buffalo
I don't bet a lot of totals, but I'm making an exception in this game. Eastern Michigan and Buffalo are both very volatile teams, but they have two things in common--they don't play much defense and they score a lot when other teams don't play much defense.
Eastern Michigan has allowed at least 80 points in 7 of their last 10 games. In 5 of these they allowed 84+. Buffalo has been a bit more stout, only allowing 80 or more in 4 of their last 10. Both of these teams struggle to score against teams that slow down the pace and grind out games, but neither of them will face that today. Buffalo is second in the country with 77.2 possessions per game and EMU is in the top 15% with 73.2.
EMU has scored 90 in two straight games, though they have more often been right around 80 in faster-paced games. Buffalo has scored 80+ in 5 of their last 10 games with 3 others at 75, 77, and 78.
Pick: EMU v Buffalo o161 (-110) WynnBet
NC State v Virginia
I lost my last bet on NC State, so I always want to be careful about betting against a team based on emotion, but I legitimately think Virginia is in a very good spot today. They are 10-1 ATS at home and they're coming off a loss to VT on the road. I like them to bounce back here, but my confidence in this play comes from one other specific stat.
When NC State has been held under 70 points this season they have lost those games by 11, 14, and 8. Virginia has held opponents under 70 points in 14 of their last 15 games. NC State just doesn't play close games when they can't score a lot and Virginia is great at slowing games down and playing good defense.
Pick: Virginia -7.5 (-109) Barstool
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