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WHICH TEAMS HAVE OUTPERFORMED THEIR TURNOVER MARGIN (AND WHICH ONES NOT SO MUCH)

Of all the statistics you can use to explain wins and losses in the NFL, turnovers are one of the strongest. Here's a great explanation of that from Covers. It's tricky to use turnovers to predict games because it's difficult to correlate specific statistics to the likelihood that turnovers will happen in a game. But that doesn't mean we can't use turnover information to our advantage.


I built a model that determines Wins Over Expectation (WOE) based on turnovers. The model accounts for the expected winning percentage a team should have based on the number of turnovers in that game. Basically, it tells you--based on a game-by-game look at a team's turnover differential--if they are winning more or less than we'd expect.


Before I get to the rankings, why does this matter?

If a team wins more than we'd expect based on turnovers, this is an indicator of a relatively strong team. They are winning despite being in negative game scenarios in relation to turnovers. If a team loses more than we'd expect based on turnovers, it's an indicator of a relatively weak team. They are losing games they shouldn't based on the game scenario with regard to turnovers.


We can use this as a statistically valid input in the capping process. Certainly, there are far more factors than this that go into making an educated play on who will win a game, but it gives us one more solid piece of data to throw in the mix.


Okay, let's get on to the rankings.


TIER 1: +3 OR BETTER W.O.E.


We'll start with teams that are outpacing their expected win total by at least 3 games.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+5.56)


BUFFALO BILLS (+4.78)


MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3.5)


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3.35)




TIER 2: +1 TO +2.9 W.O.E.


Next up are teams that have outpaced their expected win total by at least a game. This is a small group.


DALLAS COWBOYS (+2.16)


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+1.56)


CINCINNATI BENGALS (+1.53)




TIER 3: +1 TO -1 W.O.E.


We move on to the teams who are within a game of their expected win total. This metric is telling us these teams basically have the record they should have.

  • LA Chargers (+0.9)

  • Baltimore Ravens (+0.67)

  • Tampa Bay Bucs (+0.47)

  • Miami Dolphins (+0.29)

  • Green Bay Packers (+0.09)

  • New Orleans Saints (-0.02)

  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-0.14)

  • Washington Commanders (-0.3)

  • New York Jets (-0.39)

  • Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.41)

  • NY Giants (-0.7)



TIER 4: -1 TO -3 W.O.E.


Now we get into the teams who have underperformed based on this metric. They're bad, but they're not the worst.

  • Seattle Seahawks (-1.05)

  • Atlanta Falcons (-1.26)

  • Las Vegas Raiders (-1.39)

  • Tennessee Titans (-1.59)

  • Cleveland Browns (-1.69)

  • Detroit Lions (-1.84)

  • Carolina Panthers (-2.08)

  • New England Patriots (-2.25)

  • LA Rams (-2.49)



TIER 5: -3 W.O.E. OR WORSE


We've finally arrived at the worst of the worst. This list probably won't surprise anyone.

  • Indianapolis Colts (-3.16)

  • Arizona Cardinals (-3.81)

  • Denver Broncos (-4.64)

  • Chicago Bears (-5.5)

  • Houston Texans (-6.68)



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