Of all the statistics you can use to explain wins and losses in the NFL, turnovers are one of the strongest. Here's a great explanation of that from Covers. It's tricky to use turnovers to predict games because it's difficult to correlate specific statistics to the likelihood that turnovers will happen in a game. But that doesn't mean we can't use turnover information to our advantage.
I built a model that determines Wins Over Expectation (WOE) based on turnovers. The model accounts for the expected winning percentage a team should have based on the number of turnovers in that game. Basically, it tells you--based on a game-by-game look at a team's turnover differential--if they are winning more or less than we'd expect.
Before I get to the rankings, why does this matter?
If a team wins more than we'd expect based on turnovers, this is an indicator of a relatively strong team. They are winning despite being in negative game scenarios in relation to turnovers. If a team loses more than we'd expect based on turnovers, it's an indicator of a relatively weak team. They are losing games they shouldn't based on the game scenario with regard to turnovers.
We can use this as a statistically valid input in the capping process. Certainly, there are far more factors than this that go into making an educated play on who will win a game, but it gives us one more solid piece of data to throw in the mix.
Okay, let's get on to the rankings.
TIER 1: +3 OR BETTER W.O.E.
We'll start with teams that are outpacing their expected win total by at least 3 games.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+5.56)
BUFFALO BILLS (+4.78)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3.5)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3.35)
TIER 2: +1 TO +2.9 W.O.E.
Next up are teams that have outpaced their expected win total by at least a game. This is a small group.
DALLAS COWBOYS (+2.16)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+1.56)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+1.53)
TIER 3: +1 TO -1 W.O.E.
We move on to the teams who are within a game of their expected win total. This metric is telling us these teams basically have the record they should have.
LA Chargers (+0.9)
Baltimore Ravens (+0.67)
Tampa Bay Bucs (+0.47)
Miami Dolphins (+0.29)
Green Bay Packers (+0.09)
New Orleans Saints (-0.02)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-0.14)
Washington Commanders (-0.3)
New York Jets (-0.39)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-0.41)
NY Giants (-0.7)
TIER 4: -1 TO -3 W.O.E.
Now we get into the teams who have underperformed based on this metric. They're bad, but they're not the worst.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.05)
Atlanta Falcons (-1.26)
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.39)
Tennessee Titans (-1.59)
Cleveland Browns (-1.69)
Detroit Lions (-1.84)
Carolina Panthers (-2.08)
New England Patriots (-2.25)
LA Rams (-2.49)
TIER 5: -3 W.O.E. OR WORSE
We've finally arrived at the worst of the worst. This list probably won't surprise anyone.
Indianapolis Colts (-3.16)
Arizona Cardinals (-3.81)
Denver Broncos (-4.64)
Chicago Bears (-5.5)
Houston Texans (-6.68)
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